Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/08, 23:30

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Vitoria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Atletico Mineiro1.66

Vitoria0.79

1X2

57% 26% 17%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Vitoria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWDWDW

Vitoria 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 0–2–4 Vitoria (6 last)

Vitoria2-0Atletico Mineiro
Vitoria1-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-2Vitoria
Atletico Mineiro2-2Vitoria
Vitoria4-2Atletico Mineiro
Vitoria1-0Atletico Mineiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1552 · Vitoria 1509

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Vitoria
Our model	57%	26%	17%
Market	57%	26%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1552 vs 1509).
H2H favours Vitoria: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Vitoria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:50 +5’	1.61	3.60	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 0–2–4 Vitoria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
31/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
14/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-2 HT 0-0	Vitoria
05/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-2 HT 2-0	Vitoria
20/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	4-2 HT 2-1	Atletico Mineiro
26/08/18 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Vitoria
Remo	2-2 D	0-2 L
Palmeiras	2-1 W	0-4 L
Vasco da Gama	1-0 W	1-0 W
Botafogo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Flamengo	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

LWDWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
16/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
10/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
03/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	1	12	W
27/04	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-3	0-4	8	3	L

Vitoria

DLWLWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
30/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	6	7	L
27/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
24/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
31/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	5	8	L
23/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
09/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (57%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 57%, draw 26%, Vitoria 17%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.66 · Vitoria 0.79), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.