Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense

Team pages: Athletico Paranaense · Fluminense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Athletico Paranaense1.28

Fluminense1.01

1X2

41% 30% 28%

Athletico Paranaense Draw Fluminense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletico Paranaense 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWDWD

Fluminense 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDDDWW

Head-to-head

Athletico Paranaense 1–2–3 Fluminense (6 last)

Fluminense3-2Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-1Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense2-2Fluminense
Fluminense2-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-0Fluminense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletico Paranaense 1536 · Fluminense 1526

	Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Fluminense
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fluminense: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletico Paranaense	Fluminense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.3	2.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +8’	2.25	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletico Paranaense 1–2–3 Fluminense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	3-2 HT 2-1	Athletico Paranaense
01/12/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-1 HT 1-0	Fluminense
23/10/24 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
27/08/23 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	2-2 HT 1-0	Fluminense
22/04/23 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	2-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
04/09/22 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-0 HT 1-0	Fluminense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletico Paranaense	Fluminense
Bragantino	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sao Paulo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Mirassol	1-0 W	0-1 L
Remo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Gremio	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (1 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
09/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
31/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
23/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
30/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
24/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
18/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
11/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Fluminense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
26/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
18/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	11	7	D
01/06	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
24/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
17/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
09/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletico Paranaense win (41%). Probabilities: Athletico Paranaense 41%, draw 30%, Fluminense 28%.

How many goals are expected in Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Athletico Paranaense 1.28 · Fluminense 1.01), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.