Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 22/08, 18:00

Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: Harju JK Laagri · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Harju JK Laagri1.29

JK Nomme Kalju2.03

1X2

23% 23% 54%

Harju JK Laagri Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Harju JK Laagri 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLLWL

JK Nomme Kalju 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Harju JK Laagri 0–6 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju1-0Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-2JK Nomme Kalju
Harju JK Laagri1-3JK Nomme Kalju
Harju JK Laagri2-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-0Harju JK Laagri
JK Nomme Kalju3-0Harju JK Laagri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1455 · JK Nomme Kalju 1610

	Harju JK Laagri	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	23%	23%	54%
Market	23%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1455 vs 1610).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harju JK Laagri	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	3.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	2.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.80

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:48 +4’	3.90	3.80	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 0–0–6 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 HT 0-0	Harju JK Laagri
08/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
19/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	1-3 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju
24/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Harju JK Laagri	2-3 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju
18/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 HT 0-0	Harju JK Laagri
09/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	3-0 HT 3-0	Harju JK Laagri

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	22	16	5	1	57	18	53
2	JK Nomme Kalju	23	13	5	5	43	18	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	21	13	0	8	42	24	39
4	Paide Linnameeskond	22	10	6	6	34	29	36
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	20	9	2	9	23	31	29
6	Parnu JK Vaprus	22	8	3	11	30	42	27
7	JK Nomme United	23	8	1	14	40	54	25
8	Harju JK Laagri	23	8	1	14	33	40	25
9	FC Kuressaare	23	7	3	13	25	38	24
10	JK Trans Narva	23	5	2	16	18	51	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harju JK Laagri	JK Nomme Kalju
FC Kuressaare	2-3 L	0-0 D
JK Trans Narva	3-0 W	2-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 L	5-1 W
JK Nomme United	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
11/08	FC Tamper Estonia Cup	2-1	3-1	10	2	W
07/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L
02/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/07	Rae Spordikool Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
19/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	5-1	5-2	5	9	W
10/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
05/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-3	10	2	L
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

JK Nomme Kalju

WWDDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
11/08	Parnu JK Poseidon Estonia Cup	8-0	12-0	–	–	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
30/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
23/07	Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-3	2-5	2	1	L
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
16/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
09/07	Linfield UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme Kalju win (54%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 23%, draw 23%, JK Nomme Kalju 54%.

How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Harju JK Laagri 1.29 · JK Nomme Kalju 2.03), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.