Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 29/08, 13:30

Prediction: JK Nomme United vs Harju JK Laagri

Team pages: JK Nomme United · Harju JK Laagri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

JK Nomme United1.57

Harju JK Laagri1.54

1X2

38% 25% 37%

JK Nomme United Draw Harju JK Laagri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWLL

Harju JK Laagri 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United 2–4 Harju JK Laagri (6 last)

JK Nomme United1-2Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri0-1JK Nomme United
Harju JK Laagri3-0JK Nomme United
Harju JK Laagri5-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United4-1Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri4-2JK Nomme United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1466 · Harju JK Laagri 1476

	JK Nomme United	Draw	Harju JK Laagri
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Harju JK Laagri: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	Harju JK Laagri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.9	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +2’	2.30	3.70	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 2–0–4 Harju JK Laagri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	1-2 HT 1-1	Harju JK Laagri
30/10/25 Estonia Cup	Harju JK Laagri	0-1 HT 0-0	JK Nomme United
14/08/24 Estonia Cup	Harju JK Laagri	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United
22/10/22 Estonia Esiliiga	Harju JK Laagri	5-1 HT 3-0	JK Nomme United
04/09/22 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United	4-1 HT 0-1	Harju JK Laagri
28/04/22 Estonia Esiliiga	Harju JK Laagri	4-2 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	23	17	5	1	61	18	56
2	JK Nomme Kalju	24	13	5	6	43	19	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	22	14	0	8	44	25	42
4	Paide Linnameeskond	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	21	10	2	9	24	31	32
6	Harju JK Laagri	24	9	1	14	34	40	28
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	23	8	3	12	31	44	27
8	JK Nomme United	24	8	1	15	41	58	25
9	FC Kuressaare	24	7	3	14	25	39	24
10	JK Trans Narva	24	5	2	17	18	55	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	Harju JK Laagri
Paide Linnameeskond	1-4 L	0-1 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	0-3 L
JK Trans Narva	2-1 W	3-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	0-4 L	0-5 L
FC Kuressaare	1-2 L	2-3 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	1-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-2 W	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-7 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Harju JK Laagri (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United

LWWLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
17/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
29/05	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
20/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
15/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
10/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
02/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
25/04	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
22/04	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-7	2	2	L

Harju JK Laagri

DWLLLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
17/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
13/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
30/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
20/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/05	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
09/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	0	3	L
30/04	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-4	0-5	0	1	L
25/04	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/04	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	5	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United vs Harju JK Laagri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme United win (38%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United 38%, draw 25%, Harju JK Laagri 37%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model expects 3.11 goals (JK Nomme United 1.57 · Harju JK Laagri 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United vs Harju JK Laagri?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.