Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FC Kuressaare1.56

Parnu JK Vaprus1.48

1X2

39% 26% 35%

FC Kuressaare Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDWDL

Parnu JK Vaprus 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 3–3 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

FC Kuressaare0-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus9-2FC Kuressaare
Parnu JK Vaprus0-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare2-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-0Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1480 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1535

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Parnu JK Vaprus (rating 1480 vs 1535).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +4’	2.30	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 3–0–3 Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-1 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Parnu JK Vaprus	9-2 HT 1-2	FC Kuressaare
21/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Kuressaare
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	2-1 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
01/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
18/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-0 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	23	17	5	1	61	18	56
2	JK Nomme Kalju	24	13	5	6	43	19	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	22	14	0	8	44	25	42
4	Paide Linnameeskond	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	21	10	2	9	24	31	32
6	Harju JK Laagri	24	9	1	14	34	40	28
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	23	8	3	12	31	44	27
8	JK Nomme United	24	8	1	15	41	58	25
9	FC Kuressaare	24	7	3	14	25	39	24
10	JK Trans Narva	24	5	2	17	18	55	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 L	0-0 D
JK Trans Narva	0-0 D	2-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	3-2 W	2-1 W
JK Nomme United	2-1 W	2-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju	0-2 L	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Parnu JK Vaprus (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kuressaare

LLLLLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
13/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	8	3	W
31/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
08/05	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
02/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
25/04	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
21/04	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	7	6	L

Parnu JK Vaprus

WWLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
13/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
24/05	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-4	1-6	1	2	L
16/05	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
09/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
02/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/04	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
21/04	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Kuressaare win (39%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 39%, draw 26%, Parnu JK Vaprus 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FC Kuressaare 1.56 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.