Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 26/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Tammeka Tartu vs FC Flora Tallinn

Team pages: JK Tammeka Tartu · FC Flora Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

JK Tammeka Tartu1.03

FC Flora Tallinn1.61

1X2

24% 25% 51%

JK Tammeka Tartu Draw FC Flora Tallinn

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tammeka Tartu 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWWDWW

FC Flora Tallinn 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

JK Tammeka Tartu 1–5 FC Flora Tallinn (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu3-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn3-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-1JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tammeka Tartu 1547 · FC Flora Tallinn 1569

	JK Tammeka Tartu	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn
Our model	23%	27%	50%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tammeka Tartu	FC Flora Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	2.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.6	4.6 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +5’	3.60	3.80	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tammeka Tartu 1–0–5 FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn
30/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Flora Tallinn
08/02/25 Europe Friendlies	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	23	17	5	1	61	18	56
2	JK Nomme Kalju	24	13	5	6	43	19	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn	22	14	0	8	44	25	42
4	Paide Linnameeskond	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	21	10	2	9	24	31	32
6	Harju JK Laagri	24	9	1	14	34	40	28
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	23	8	3	12	31	44	27
8	JK Nomme United	24	8	1	15	41	58	25
9	FC Kuressaare	24	7	3	14	25	39	24
10	JK Trans Narva	24	5	2	17	18	55	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tammeka Tartu	FC Flora Tallinn
JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 W	1-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	0-0 D	2-1 W
JK Nomme United	3-1 W	4-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 W	2-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-1 L	5-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tammeka Tartu

LDLLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
08/05	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/05	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
25/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/04	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
18/04	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
12/04	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	1-4	6	2	L

FC Flora Tallinn

LWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	12	5	W
13/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
29/05	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	10	5	W
16/05	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
10/05	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
30/04	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	4-0	5-0	5	1	W
26/04	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	10	6	W
22/04	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	6-0	3	7	W
19/04	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tammeka Tartu vs FC Flora Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn win (51%). Probabilities: JK Tammeka Tartu 24%, draw 25%, FC Flora Tallinn 51%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tammeka Tartu vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model expects 2.64 goals (JK Tammeka Tartu 1.03 · FC Flora Tallinn 1.61), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tammeka Tartu vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.