Prediction: Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia
Team pages: Gil Vicente · Casa Pia
- Gil Vicente2-1Casa Pia
- Casa Pia1-1Gil Vicente
- Casa Pia1-0Gil Vicente
- Gil Vicente1-1Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-0Gil Vicente
- Gil Vicente2-0Casa Pia
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gil Vicente (rating 1495 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Gil Vicente: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gil Vicente | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5 | 2.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gil Vicente 2–3–1 Casa Pia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Gil Vicente | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Casa Pia |
| 13/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gil Vicente |
| 22/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gil Vicente |
| 22/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Gil Vicente | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Casa Pia |
| 03/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Casa Pia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gil Vicente |
| 02/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Gil Vicente | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Casa Pia |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 11 | Academico Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 12 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gil Vicente | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Guimaraes | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Tondela | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Santa Clara | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Alverca | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Gil Vicente (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gil Vicente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Casa Pia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-7 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 11/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 12 | L |
| 27/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-3 | 11 | 0 | L |
| 06/04 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gil Vicente win (55%). Probabilities: Gil Vicente 55%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 18%.
How many goals are expected in Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Gil Vicente 1.5 · Casa Pia 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.