Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 30/08, 16:30

Prediction: Nacional vs Estrela

Team pages: Nacional · Estrela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Nacional1.46

Estrela0.92

1X2

48% 29% 23%

Nacional Draw Estrela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWDWL

Estrela 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDDDD

Head-to-head

Nacional 2–1–3 Estrela (6 last)

Nacional2-0Estrela
Estrela1-1Nacional
Nacional0-1Estrela
Estrela2-0Nacional
Estrela0-1Nacional
Nacional0-1Estrela

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estrela: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional	Estrela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	1.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.04

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:13

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.40
X	3.20 → 3.24▲	Pinn 3.24
2	3.05 → 3.08▲	Pinn 3.08

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:25 +1’	2.38	3.20	3.05
07:13	2.40▲	3.24▲	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional 2–1–3 Estrela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	2-0 HT 1-0	Estrela
09/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	1-1 HT 0-1	Nacional
06/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	0-1 HT 0-0	Estrela
10/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	2-0 HT 0-0	Nacional
21/05/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	Estrela	0-1 HT 0-0	Nacional
15/01/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	Nacional	0-1 HT 0-1	Estrela

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	3	3	0	0	6	0	9
2	Sporting	3	2	1	0	8	5	7
3	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
4	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Arouca	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
7	Nacional	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
10	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
13	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
14	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
17	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional

WLWWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
11/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
25/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
04/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W

Estrela

WLLLLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
11/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	2-3	4	8	L
26/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	0	6	L
19/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
11/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/04	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
20/03	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional vs Estrela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional win (48%). Probabilities: Nacional 48%, draw 29%, Estrela 23%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Estrela?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Nacional 1.46 · Estrela 0.92), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional vs Estrela?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.