Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 31/08, 21:15
Prediction: Benfica vs Estoril
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.74Total
Benfica2.87
Estoril0.87
1X2
Benfica
Draw
Estoril
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Benfica
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Estoril
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Benfica
5–1–0
Estoril
(6 last)
- Estoril1-3Benfica
- Benfica3-1Estoril
- Estoril1-2Benfica
- Benfica3-0Estoril
- Benfica3-1Estoril
- Benfica1-1Estoril
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Benfica 1634 · Estoril 1409
| Benfica | Draw | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1634 vs 1409).
- H2H favours Benfica: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Benfica | Estoril | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.9 / 9.3 | 2.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica 5–1–0 Estoril
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Benfica |
| 03/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Estoril |
| 03/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estoril | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Benfica |
| 23/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Estoril |
| 10/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Estoril |
| 24/01/24 Portugal League Cup | Benfica | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Estoril |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Benfica | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Braga | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Moreirense | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Nacional | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Arouca | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Benfica (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benfica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 6 | W |
| 06/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 14/03 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 12 | W |
Estoril
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/08 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 20/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Benfica vs Estoril?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica win (79%). Probabilities: Benfica 79%, draw 13%, Estoril 8%.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Estoril?
The model expects 3.74 goals (Benfica 2.87 · Estoril 0.87), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.