Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: Casa Pia vs Moreirense

Team pages: Casa Pia · Moreirense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Casa Pia1.29

Moreirense0.95

1X2

44% 30% 27%

Casa Pia Draw Moreirense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Casa Pia 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWDLLL

Moreirense 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLDDL

Head-to-head

Casa Pia 2–1–3 Moreirense (6 last)

Casa Pia1-1Moreirense
Moreirense2-1Casa Pia
Moreirense3-2Casa Pia
Casa Pia3-1Moreirense
Casa Pia0-1Moreirense
Moreirense1-4Casa Pia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casa Pia 1415 · Moreirense 1467

	Casa Pia	Draw	Moreirense
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moreirense (rating 1415 vs 1467).
H2H favours Moreirense: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casa Pia	Moreirense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.8	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.27
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:02 +3’	2.10	3.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:30 +2’	2.15	3.22	3.50
23:23	2.17▲	3.26▲	3.54▲
01:22	2.16▼	3.27▲	3.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Casa Pia 2–1–3 Moreirense

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	1-1 HT 1-0	Moreirense
27/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	2-1 HT 1-1	Casa Pia
15/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	3-2 HT 3-0	Casa Pia
14/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	3-1 HT 0-1	Moreirense
12/05/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-1 HT 0-1	Moreirense
08/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	1-4 HT 1-3	Casa Pia

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	3	3	0	0	6	0	9
2	Sporting	3	2	1	0	8	5	7
3	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
4	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Arouca	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
6	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
7	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
9	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
10	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
13	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
14	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
17	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casa Pia	Moreirense
Benfica	0-7 L	1-4 L
Tondela	0-1 L	0-2 L
Braga	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Moreirense (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casa Pia

LDLLLWDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
11/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	7	12	L
27/04	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
18/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
12/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-3	11	0	L

Moreirense

LLDWLWLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	3	7	L
09/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
02/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	3-2	1	8	W
25/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	2	4	L
20/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
10/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	0	11	D
04/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/03	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casa Pia win (44%). Probabilities: Casa Pia 44%, draw 30%, Moreirense 27%.

How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Casa Pia 1.29 · Moreirense 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.