Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 29/08, 16:30

Prediction: Alverca vs Santa Clara

Team pages: Alverca · Santa Clara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Alverca1.14

Santa Clara1.23

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Alverca Draw Santa Clara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alverca 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLLDL

Santa Clara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWLDW

Head-to-head

Alverca 0–1–1 Santa Clara (2 last)

Alverca1-1Santa Clara
Santa Clara2-1Alverca

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Clara (rating 1467 vs 1535).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alverca	Santa Clara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:20

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.32 → 3.32	Pinn 3.32
X	3.12 → 3.12	Pinn 3.12
2	2.34 → 2.34	Pinn 2.34

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +3’	3.32	3.12	2.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 0–1–1 Santa Clara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Alverca	1-1 HT 1-0	Santa Clara
20/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	2-1 HT 1-1	Alverca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sporting	3	2	1	0	8	5	7
2	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
3	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
4	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
6	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
10	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
12	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
13	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Alverca	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alverca	Santa Clara
Sporting	1-3 L	2-4 L
FC Porto	0-2 L	0-1 L
Arouca	2-1 W	2-2 D
Nacional	0-1 L	2-2 D
Casa Pia	3-1 W	0-0 D
Rio Ave	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alverca (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alverca

WWLWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
09/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
16/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
10/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
24/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
18/04	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
12/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	3-1	9	0	W
04/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	4	3	W

Santa Clara

WLLDWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
26/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
11/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
03/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-3	2-4	5	8	L
21/03	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Santa Clara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Santa Clara win (37%). Probabilities: Alverca 33%, draw 30%, Santa Clara 37%.

How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Santa Clara?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Alverca 1.14 · Santa Clara 1.23), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Santa Clara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.