Prediction: Braga vs Guimaraes
- Braga3-2Guimaraes
- Guimaraes2-1Braga
- Guimaraes1-1Braga
- Guimaraes0-0Braga
- Braga2-1Guimaraes
- Braga0-2Guimaraes
| Braga | Draw | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1590 vs 1489).
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Braga | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.4 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Braga 2–2–2 Guimaraes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Guimaraes |
| 10/01/26 Portugal League Cup | Guimaraes | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Braga |
| 20/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Braga |
| 16/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Braga |
| 31/10/24 Portugal League Cup | Braga | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Guimaraes |
| 15/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Guimaraes |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Braga | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Arouca | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Braga (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Braga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
Guimaraes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 08/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 11/05 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Braga vs Guimaraes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Braga win (55%). Probabilities: Braga 55%, draw 27%, Guimaraes 19%.
How many goals are expected in Braga vs Guimaraes?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Braga 1.64 · Guimaraes 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Braga vs Guimaraes?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.