Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 23/08, 22:00

Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Macara

Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Macara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Club Atletico Libertad1.13

Macara1.3

1X2

31% 30% 39%

Club Atletico Libertad Draw Macara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Atletico Libertad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWWWWD

Macara 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Club Atletico Libertad 0–1–4 Macara (5 last)

Macara3-0Club Atletico Libertad
Macara1-1Club Atletico Libertad
Club Atletico Libertad0-1Macara
Club Atletico Libertad0-1Macara
Macara3-0Club Atletico Libertad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1522 · Macara 1565

	Club Atletico Libertad	Draw	Macara
Our model	31%	30%	39%
Market	31%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1522 vs 1565).
H2H favours Macara: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Atletico Libertad	Macara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.4	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +5’	2.90	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 0–1–4 Macara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	3-0 HT 2-0	Club Atletico Libertad
21/09/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Atletico Libertad
25/05/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 HT 0-0	Macara
17/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 HT 0-0	Macara
15/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Macara	3-0 HT 2-0	Club Atletico Libertad

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	25	21	1	3	61	24	64
2	Macara	24	12	5	7	32	24	41
3	SD Aucas	24	12	5	7	29	25	41
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	24	11	6	7	39	21	39
5	Barcelona Guayaquil	25	9	9	7	25	20	36
6	LDU Quito	24	10	5	9	23	20	35
7	Leones FC	25	9	8	8	26	25	35
8	Club Atletico Libertad	25	9	7	9	28	29	34
9	Mushuc Runa	25	8	8	9	32	34	32
10	Emelec	25	8	8	9	21	29	32
11	Deportivo Cuenca	25	9	4	12	22	32	31
12	Guayaquil City	25	7	9	9	22	27	30
13	Orense	25	8	6	11	30	36	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	25	8	2	15	21	34	26
15	Delfin SC	25	6	6	13	17	27	24
16	Manta FC	25	4	5	16	11	32	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Atletico Libertad	Macara
Guayaquil City	2-2 D	2-1 W
Mushuc Runa	2-0 W	2-1 W
Delfin SC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	0-1 L	2-1 W
Tecnico Universitario	1-0 W	2-0 W
LDU Quito	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Macara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Club Atletico Libertad

LLDWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
10/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
27/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
21/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
15/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
04/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
30/05	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	2	4	L

Macara

WWWLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Santos Copa Sudamericana	1-1	1-2	1	10	L
09/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
02/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
29/07	Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	4-1	2	3	W
22/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
18/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
14/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
05/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Macara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Macara win (39%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 31%, draw 30%, Macara 39%.

How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Macara?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 1.13 · Macara 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Macara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.