Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 03/09, 23:30

Prediction: Leones FC vs Orense

Team pages: Leones FC · Orense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Leones FC1.45

Orense1.11

1X2

43% 29% 27%

Leones FC Draw Orense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDLWL

Orense 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDWLL

Head-to-head

Leones FC 1–1 Orense (2 last)

Orense2-0Leones FC
Leones FC1-0Orense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1509 · Orense 1447

	Leones FC	Draw	Orense
Our model	44%	29%	28%
Market	43%	30%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones FC (rating 1509 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Orense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	1.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +6’	2.15	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:18 +1’	2.37	2.92	3.21
02:20 +1’	2.39▲	2.95▲	3.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 1–0–1 Orense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Orense	2-0 HT 0-0	Leones FC
22/08/25 Ecuador Cup	Leones FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Orense

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	27	22	2	3	66	28	68
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	27	12	8	7	47	25	44
3	SD Aucas	26	13	5	8	30	26	44
4	Macara	26	12	6	8	33	26	42
5	LDU Quito	27	12	5	10	27	22	41
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	27	10	9	8	28	22	39
7	Club Atletico Libertad	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
8	Mushuc Runa	27	9	9	9	33	34	36
9	Guayaquil City	27	9	9	9	27	30	36
10	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
11	Emelec	26	8	8	10	21	31	32
12	Deportivo Cuenca	27	9	5	13	23	35	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	27	9	2	16	26	38	29
15	Delfin SC	27	6	6	15	17	29	24
16	Manta FC	27	5	5	17	14	37	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Orense
Independiente del Valle	2-3 L	2-3 L
Manta FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
SD Aucas	0-3 L	2-1 W
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	0-3 L
Delfin SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	2-0 W
Club Atletico Libertad	3-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones FC

WWDWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	–	–	W

Orense

DLLWLLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
16/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
09/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
01/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
26/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	11	6	L
23/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
20/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
11/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Orense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones FC win (43%). Probabilities: Leones FC 43%, draw 29%, Orense 27%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Orense?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Leones FC 1.45 · Orense 1.11), with a 58% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Orense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.