Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 03/09, 02:00

Prediction: Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle

Team pages: Barcelona Guayaquil · Independiente del Valle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Barcelona Guayaquil0.65

Independiente del Valle1.75

1X2

12% 25% 63%

Barcelona Guayaquil Draw Independiente del Valle

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona Guayaquil 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDLDWL

Independiente del Valle 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 Independiente del Valle (6 last)

Independiente del Valle1-0Barcelona Guayaquil
Independiente del Valle1-0Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil0-3Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle1-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Independiente del Valle2-1Barcelona Guayaquil
Barcelona Guayaquil1-0Independiente del Valle

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1448 vs 1667).
H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona Guayaquil	Independiente del Valle
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.84

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:32

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.15 → 3.22▲	Pinn 3.22
X	3.10 → 3.14▲	Pinn 3.14
2	2.30 → 2.29▼	Pinn 2.29

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:30 +3’	3.15	3.10	2.30
04:00 +2’	3.18▲	3.13▲	2.32▲
14:24 +8’	3.22▲	3.14▲	2.29▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona Guayaquil 1–1–4 Independiente del Valle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
21/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-0 HT 1-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
06/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Barcelona Guayaquil	0-3 HT 0-3	Independiente del Valle
06/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Independiente del Valle	1-1 HT 0-0	Barcelona Guayaquil
28/05/25 Copa Libertadores	Independiente del Valle	2-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona Guayaquil
02/04/25 Copa Libertadores	Barcelona Guayaquil	1-0 HT 1-0	Independiente del Valle

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	27	22	2	3	66	28	68
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	27	12	8	7	47	25	44
3	SD Aucas	26	13	5	8	30	26	44
4	Macara	26	12	6	8	33	26	42
5	LDU Quito	27	12	5	10	27	22	41
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	27	10	9	8	28	22	39
7	Club Atletico Libertad	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
8	Mushuc Runa	27	9	9	9	33	34	36
9	Guayaquil City	27	9	9	9	27	30	36
10	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
11	Emelec	26	8	8	10	21	31	32
12	Deportivo Cuenca	27	9	5	13	23	35	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	27	9	2	16	26	38	29
15	Delfin SC	27	6	6	15	17	29	24
16	Manta FC	27	5	5	17	14	37	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona Guayaquil	Independiente del Valle
Orense	3-0 W	3-2 W
Mushuc Runa	0-0 D	4-1 W
Leones FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
LDU Quito	0-1 L	2-0 W
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-2 L	2-2 D
Emelec	0-0 D	6-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona Guayaquil

DDWLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
16/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
09/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	6	2	L
03/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
27/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
22/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
19/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Independiente del Valle

WWWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
22/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
15/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	3-2	9	4	W
08/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
02/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
26/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
22/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
20/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	6-1	6	2	W
16/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
11/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	4-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (63%). Probabilities: Barcelona Guayaquil 12%, draw 25%, Independiente del Valle 63%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Barcelona Guayaquil 0.65 · Independiente del Valle 1.75), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.