Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 03/09, 21:00

Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas

Team pages: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador · SD Aucas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.61

SD Aucas1.05

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Draw SD Aucas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLDWD

SD Aucas 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2–2–2 SD Aucas (6 last)

SD Aucas2-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador6-2SD Aucas
SD Aucas2-1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador0-0SD Aucas
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-2SD Aucas
SD Aucas2-2Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	SD Aucas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.94

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.81 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.83
X	3.52 → 3.57▲	Pinn 3.57
2	4.06 → 4.11▲	Pinn 4.11

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:29 +5’	1.81	3.52	4.06
22:26 +1’	1.83▲	3.57▲	4.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2–2–2 SD Aucas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	2-1 HT 1-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
03/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	6-2 HT 4-1	SD Aucas
16/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	2-1 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
07/03/25 Copa Sudamericana	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	0-0 HT 0-0	SD Aucas
09/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-2 HT 2-1	SD Aucas
19/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	SD Aucas	2-2 HT 0-1	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	27	22	2	3	66	28	68
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	27	12	8	7	47	25	44
3	SD Aucas	26	13	5	8	30	26	44
4	Macara	26	12	6	8	33	26	42
5	LDU Quito	27	12	5	10	27	22	41
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	27	10	9	8	28	22	39
7	Club Atletico Libertad	26	10	7	9	29	29	37
8	Mushuc Runa	27	9	9	9	33	34	36
9	Guayaquil City	27	9	9	9	27	30	36
10	Leones FC	26	9	8	9	28	28	35
11	Emelec	26	8	8	10	21	31	32
12	Deportivo Cuenca	27	9	5	13	23	35	32
13	Orense	26	8	6	12	30	39	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	27	9	2	16	26	38	29
15	Delfin SC	27	6	6	15	17	29	24
16	Manta FC	27	5	5	17	14	37	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	SD Aucas
Independiente del Valle	2-2 D	0-3 L
Macara	1-1 D	1-4 L
Club Atletico Libertad	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	5-0 W	1-0 W
Deportivo Cuenca	2-0 W	1-0 W
LDU Quito	1-0 W	0-1 L
Leones FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

LWWWDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-2	3	2	D
22/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-1	5-1	6	3	W
18/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
10/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
01/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	3-0	5-0	3	5	W
27/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	11	L

SD Aucas

WLWLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
17/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
08/08	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
02/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
23/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
19/07	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
16/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
12/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (49%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 49%, draw 27%, SD Aucas 24%.

How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.61 · SD Aucas 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs SD Aucas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.