Football · Peru Liga 1 · 22/08, 22:00

Prediction: FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima

Team pages: FBC Melgar · Alianza Lima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

FBC Melgar1.63

Alianza Lima1.35

1X2

42% 27% 30%

FBC Melgar Draw Alianza Lima

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWDLW

Alianza Lima 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWDWDW

Head-to-head

FBC Melgar 1–3–2 Alianza Lima (6 last)

Alianza Lima3-1FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima2-2FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar0-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima1-1FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-0Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima0-0FBC Melgar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1533 · Alianza Lima 1511

	FBC Melgar	Draw	Alianza Lima
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza Lima: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBC Melgar	Alianza Lima
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +5’	2.20	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 1–3–2 Alianza Lima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-1 HT 1-1	FBC Melgar
01/11/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	2-2 HT 1-1	FBC Melgar
29/06/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
29/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-1 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
29/04/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
29/09/23 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-0 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
4	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
5	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
6	Cusco FC	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	21	10	5	6	26	20	35
8	Sporting Cristal	22	8	5	9	37	34	29
9	Alianza Atletico	22	7	7	8	27	27	28
10	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
11	Comerciantes Unidos	22	6	8	8	27	29	26
12	Atletico Grau	22	6	5	11	16	22	23
13	Sport Huancayo	22	6	5	11	28	38	23
14	AD Tarma	22	5	7	10	25	28	22
15	FC Cajamarca	21	5	6	10	30	36	21
16	Deportivo Moquegua	21	5	6	10	19	28	21
17	Juan Pablo II College	22	5	6	11	26	46	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	22	4	8	10	24	35	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBC Melgar	Alianza Lima
FC Cajamarca	2-4 L	1-1 D
Alianza Atletico	3-1 W	3-1 W
Sport Huancayo	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FBC Melgar

WDWLDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L
02/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
29/06	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	10	10	D
12/06	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
31/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
22/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
16/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	5	7	W

Alianza Lima

DDLLLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
12/07	Deportivo Cali America Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
28/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
21/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
14/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (42%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 42%, draw 27%, Alianza Lima 30%.

How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?

The model expects 2.98 goals (FBC Melgar 1.63 · Alianza Lima 1.35), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.