Football · Peru Liga 1 · 30/08, 20:15

Prediction: AD Tarma vs Sport Huancayo

Team pages: AD Tarma · Sport Huancayo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

AD Tarma1.38

Sport Huancayo1.38

1X2

36% 28% 36%

AD Tarma Draw Sport Huancayo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Tarma 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDDL

Sport Huancayo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWDLL

Head-to-head

AD Tarma 4–2 Sport Huancayo (6 last)

Sport Huancayo1-0AD Tarma
Sport Huancayo0-1AD Tarma
AD Tarma1-0Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo2-1AD Tarma
AD Tarma2-1Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo0-2AD Tarma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Tarma 1461 · Sport Huancayo 1495

	AD Tarma	Draw	Sport Huancayo
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AD Tarma: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Tarma	Sport Huancayo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	3.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.7	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.27
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +1’	2.55	3.25	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:33	2.26	3.27	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 4–0–2 Sport Huancayo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Sport Huancayo	1-0 HT 1-0	AD Tarma
14/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Tarma
09/08/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	1-0 HT 0-0	Sport Huancayo
08/03/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	2-1 HT 1-1	AD Tarma
25/08/24 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	2-1 HT 2-0	Sport Huancayo
31/03/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	0-2 HT 0-0	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	Universitario de Deportes	22	11	6	5	32	22	39
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
5	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Tarma	Sport Huancayo
Juan Pablo II College	1-5 L	2-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sporting Cristal	1-2 L	1-4 L
Deportivo Moquegua	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AD Tarma (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Tarma

DWLLLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-5	6	0	L
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D
08/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
02/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
25/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
18/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
30/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	12	5	L
24/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	0	9	L
17/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
09/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	0	8	D

Sport Huancayo

WLDLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
16/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
07/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	11	6	D
01/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	2	6	W
25/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	10	3	W
20/07	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
24/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	7	L
10/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Sport Huancayo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Tarma win (36%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 36%, draw 28%, Sport Huancayo 36%.

How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Sport Huancayo?

The model expects 2.75 goals (AD Tarma 1.38 · Sport Huancayo 1.38), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Sport Huancayo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.