Football · Peru Liga 1 · 30/08, 18:00

Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico

Team pages: Deportivo Moquegua · Alianza Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Deportivo Moquegua1.06

Alianza Atletico1.18

1X2

31% 31% 37%

Deportivo Moquegua Draw Alianza Atletico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Moquegua 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDDDLDW

Alianza Atletico 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Atletico (1 last)

Alianza Atletico3-0Deportivo Moquegua

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1485 vs 1558).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Moquegua	Alianza Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.1	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.86

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.41 → 2.41	Pinn 2.41
X	3.07 → 3.07	Pinn 3.07
2	2.97 → 2.97	Pinn 2.97

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +1’	2.41	3.07	2.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moquegua 0–0–1 Alianza Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	3-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Moquegua

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	Universitario de Deportes	22	11	6	5	32	22	39
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
5	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Moquegua	Alianza Atletico
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-2 L	1-2 L
FBC Melgar	0-0 D	1-3 L
CD Los Chankas	0-1 L	3-1 W
AD Tarma	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Atletico (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Moquegua

DLDLDDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
29/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
09/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	8	D

Alianza Atletico

LWDLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
19/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
24/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
11/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Atletico win (37%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moquegua 31%, draw 31%, Alianza Atletico 37%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Deportivo Moquegua 1.06 · Alianza Atletico 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Atletico?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.