Football · Peru Liga 1 · 30/08, 02:30

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Team pages: Alianza Lima · Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Alianza Lima1.9

Deportivo Garcilaso0.57

1X2

69% 21% 10%

Alianza Lima Draw Deportivo Garcilaso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDWDW

Deportivo Garcilaso 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 4–1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso (6 last)

Deportivo Garcilaso1-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima3-4Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso0-1Alianza Lima
Deportivo Garcilaso1-2Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima3-2Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso0-1Alianza Lima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1525 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1584

	Alianza Lima	Draw	Deportivo Garcilaso
Our model	68%	22%	9%
Market	69%	21%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Garcilaso (rating 1525 vs 1584).
H2H favours Alianza Lima: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	Deportivo Garcilaso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	1.9 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	9.00 → 9.00	Pinn 10.84 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +16’	1.33	4.50	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	1.40	3.75	10.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 4–1–1 Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
14/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-4 HT 2-4	Deportivo Garcilaso
15/04/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
27/10/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-2 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
20/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-2 HT 1-2	Deportivo Garcilaso
29/10/23 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Lima

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	Universitario de Deportes	22	11	6	5	32	22	39
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
5	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	2-0 W
Alianza Atletico	3-1 W	2-1 W
Comerciantes Unidos	2-2 D	0-0 D
FC Cajamarca	1-1 D	2-1 W
Cienciano	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sporting Cristal	1-1 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Moquegua	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Lima

WDWWDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
24/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
17/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
10/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
03/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	1	4	W

Deportivo Garcilaso

WWDWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
17/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
17/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
30/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	0	4	W
25/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
17/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	1	7	W
11/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (69%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 69%, draw 21%, Deportivo Garcilaso 10%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Alianza Lima 1.9 · Deportivo Garcilaso 0.57), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.