Football · Peru Liga 1 · 22/08, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco FC

Team pages: Deportivo Garcilaso · Cusco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Deportivo Garcilaso1.17

Cusco FC1.26

1X2

33% 29% 37%

Deportivo Garcilaso Draw Cusco FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Garcilaso 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDLWWW

Cusco FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1–5 Cusco FC (6 last)

Deportivo Garcilaso0-0Cusco FC
Cusco FC1-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco FC4-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso1-3Cusco FC
Deportivo Garcilaso0-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC1-0Deportivo Garcilaso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Garcilaso 1528 · Cusco FC 1521

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Cusco FC
Our model	33%	30%	37%
Market	34%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cusco FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Cusco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3	1.9 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.7	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:38 +37’	2.75	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1–5 Cusco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-0 HT 0-0	Cusco FC
08/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
01/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
12/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	1-3 HT 0-1	Cusco FC
29/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-2 HT 0-0	Cusco FC
18/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
4	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
5	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
6	Cusco FC	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	21	10	5	6	26	20	35
8	Sporting Cristal	22	8	5	9	37	34	29
9	Alianza Atletico	22	7	7	8	27	27	28
10	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
11	Comerciantes Unidos	22	6	8	8	27	29	26
12	Atletico Grau	22	6	5	11	16	22	23
13	Sport Huancayo	22	6	5	11	28	38	23
14	AD Tarma	22	5	7	10	25	28	22
15	FC Cajamarca	21	5	6	10	30	36	21
16	Deportivo Moquegua	21	5	6	10	19	28	21
17	Juan Pablo II College	22	5	6	11	26	46	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	22	4	8	10	24	35	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Garcilaso	Cusco FC
AD Tarma	1-0 W	2-1 W
Deportivo Binacional	4-1 W	3-4 L
Cienciano	1-2 L	1-2 L
Juan Pablo II College	4-1 W	2-0 W
Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Garcilaso

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
17/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
12/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/06	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
15/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	0	4	W
25/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Cusco FC

LWDLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
02/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	1	5	W
25/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
29/06	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
22/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	2-2	3-4	8	3	L
15/06	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	0	5	W
27/05	Flamengo Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cusco FC win (37%). Probabilities: Deportivo Garcilaso 33%, draw 29%, Cusco FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco FC?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Deportivo Garcilaso 1.17 · Cusco FC 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cusco FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.