Football · Peru Liga 1 · 22/08, 22:00

Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos

Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · Comerciantes Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

UTC Cajamarca1.48

Comerciantes Unidos1.14

1X2

43% 29% 28%

UTC Cajamarca Draw Comerciantes Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

UTC Cajamarca 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLDLDL

Comerciantes Unidos 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDDDLWL

Head-to-head

UTC Cajamarca 2–2–2 Comerciantes Unidos (6 last)

Comerciantes Unidos1-2UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-1Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos2-1UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-0Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos1-1UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-3Comerciantes Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1489 · Comerciantes Unidos 1457

	UTC Cajamarca	Draw	Comerciantes Unidos
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	43%	30%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UTC Cajamarca	Comerciantes Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.6	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:57 +20’	2.15	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 2–2–2 Comerciantes Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-2 HT 1-1	UTC Cajamarca
25/01/26 America Friendlies	UTC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Comerciantes Unidos
03/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	2-1 HT 2-1	UTC Cajamarca
17/05/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-0 HT 1-0	Comerciantes Unidos
15/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-1 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca
08/03/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-3 HT 2-2	Comerciantes Unidos

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
4	Cienciano	21	11	3	7	37	28	36
5	Universitario de Deportes	21	10	6	5	29	20	36
6	Cusco FC	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	21	10	5	6	26	20	35
8	Sporting Cristal	22	8	5	9	37	34	29
9	Alianza Atletico	22	7	7	8	27	27	28
10	Sport Boys	21	7	6	8	19	21	27
11	Comerciantes Unidos	22	6	8	8	27	29	26
12	Atletico Grau	22	6	5	11	16	22	23
13	Sport Huancayo	22	6	5	11	28	38	23
14	AD Tarma	22	5	7	10	25	28	22
15	FC Cajamarca	21	5	6	10	30	36	21
16	Deportivo Moquegua	21	5	6	10	19	28	21
17	Juan Pablo II College	22	5	6	11	26	46	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	22	4	8	10	24	35	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UTC Cajamarca	Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Lima	0-1 L	2-2 D
AD Tarma	1-1 D	0-2 L
Cusco FC	1-4 L	3-1 W
Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 D	2-2 D
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	0-1 L
Club Ada Jaen	4-1 W	0-2 L
CD Los Chankas	2-2 D	2-3 L
Sport Boys	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: UTC Cajamarca (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

UTC Cajamarca

DDDWWLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	5	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
12/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/06	FC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-1	12	6	W
15/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-2	2	9	D
31/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
23/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Comerciantes Unidos

LDLLDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
07/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	1	5	W
31/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-3	7	6	L
26/07	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
18/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-2	3	5	D
27/06	Juan Pablo II College Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
11/06	Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
31/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
17/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	9	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UTC Cajamarca win (43%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 43%, draw 29%, Comerciantes Unidos 28%.

How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model expects 2.61 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.48 · Comerciantes Unidos 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.