Football · Peru Liga 1 · 29/08, 22:30
Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes
Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · Universitario de Deportes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
UTC Cajamarca1.03
Universitario de Deportes1.27
1X2
UTC Cajamarca
Draw
Universitario de Deportes
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
UTC Cajamarca
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Universitario de Deportes
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UTC Cajamarca
0–1–5
Universitario de Deportes
(6 last)
- Universitario de Deportes2-0UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca1-2Universitario de Deportes
- Universitario de Deportes6-0UTC Cajamarca
- Universitario de Deportes1-0UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca0-0Universitario de Deportes
- Universitario de Deportes3-0UTC Cajamarca
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1433 · Universitario de Deportes 1552
| UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 31% | 41% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1433 vs 1552).
- H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UTC Cajamarca | Universitario de Deportes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.4 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.6 | 3.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 0–1–5 Universitario de Deportes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 2-0 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 21/09/25 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 28/04/25 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 6-0 HT 2-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 05/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 24/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Universitario de Deportes |
| 03/10/23 Peru Liga 1 | Universitario de Deportes | 3-0 HT 1-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 40 | 14 | 52 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | CD Los Chankas | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 33 | 41 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 33 | 37 |
| 7 | Cusco FC | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 31 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 29 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 29 | 25 |
| 14 | Juan Pablo II College | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 47 | 24 |
| 15 | Sport Huancayo | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 40 | 23 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 33 | 22 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 42 | 21 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 38 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UTC Cajamarca | Universitario de Deportes |
|---|---|---|
| AD Tarma | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Cusco FC | 1-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Atletico Grau | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| CD Los Chankas | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Sport Boys | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| FC Cajamarca | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UTC Cajamarca
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Universitario de Deportes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Universitario de Deportes win (41%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 29%, draw 30%, Universitario de Deportes 41%.
How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model expects 2.3 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.03 · Universitario de Deportes 1.27), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario de Deportes?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.