Football · Peru Liga 1 · 22/08, 22:00
Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal
Team pages: Alianza Atletico · Sporting Cristal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Alianza Atletico1.3
Sporting Cristal1.15
1X2
Alianza Atletico
Draw
Sporting Cristal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza Atletico
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Sporting Cristal
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza Atletico
2–1–3
Sporting Cristal
(6 last)
- Sporting Cristal3-1Alianza Atletico
- Sporting Cristal0-0Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico1-0Sporting Cristal
- Alianza Atletico1-0Sporting Cristal
- Sporting Cristal2-1Alianza Atletico
- Sporting Cristal3-0Alianza Atletico
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1538 · Sporting Cristal 1537
| Alianza Atletico | Draw | Sporting Cristal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Atletico | Sporting Cristal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.3 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.5 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 2–1–3 Sporting Cristal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 17/09/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 19/04/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting Cristal |
| 19/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sporting Cristal |
| 05/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Alianza Atletico |
| 29/10/23 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Alianza Atletico |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 30 | 41 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 38 |
| 4 | Cienciano | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 28 | 36 |
| 5 | Universitario de Deportes | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 36 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 36 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 35 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 34 | 29 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 28 |
| 10 | Sport Boys | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 27 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 22 | 23 |
| 13 | Sport Huancayo | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 38 | 23 |
| 14 | AD Tarma | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 22 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 36 | 21 |
| 16 | Deportivo Moquegua | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 21 |
| 17 | Juan Pablo II College | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 21 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 35 | 15 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 06/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/07 | Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Sporting Cristal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 30/07 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 17/07 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Union Comercio Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Atletico win (39%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 39%, draw 29%, Sporting Cristal 32%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.3 · Sporting Cristal 1.15), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs Sporting Cristal?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.