Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 01/09, 00:00
Prediction: Estudiantes LP vs Newell's
Team pages: Estudiantes LP · Newell's
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Estudiantes LP1.42
Newell's0.64
1X2
Estudiantes LP
Draw
Newell's
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes LP
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Newell's
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes LP
4–2–0
Newell's
(6 last)
- Newell's0-2Estudiantes LP
- Newell's1-1Estudiantes LP
- Estudiantes LP1-1Newell's
- Newell's1-4Estudiantes LP
- Estudiantes LP2-0Newell's
- Newell's0-1Estudiantes LP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes LP 1549 · Newell's 1524
| Estudiantes LP | Draw | Newell's | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 30% | 16% |
| Market | 56% | 28% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Estudiantes LP: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes LP | Newell's | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.5 | 3.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes LP 4–2–0 Newell's
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 01/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
| 15/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Newell's |
| 03/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Estudiantes LP |
| 19/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Estudiantes LP | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Newell's |
| 24/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Newell's | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Estudiantes LP |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Newell's | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Platense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportivo Riestra | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lanus | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Estudiantes LP | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes LP | Newell's |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Boca Juniors | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Defensa y Justicia | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| CA Independiente | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Newell's (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 15/08 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 06/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes LP vs Newell's?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes LP win (55%). Probabilities: Estudiantes LP 55%, draw 29%, Newell's 16%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes LP vs Newell's?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Estudiantes LP 1.42 · Newell's 0.64), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes LP vs Newell's?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.