Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/09, 22:00

Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs Instituto AC Cordoba

Team pages: Union Santa Fe · Instituto AC Cordoba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Union Santa Fe1.17

Instituto AC Cordoba1.08

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Union Santa Fe Draw Instituto AC Cordoba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWLLWW

Instituto AC Cordoba 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe 2–2–1 Instituto AC Cordoba (5 last)

Instituto AC Cordoba1-2Union Santa Fe
Instituto AC Cordoba0-4Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe0-0Instituto AC Cordoba
Instituto AC Cordoba1-1Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe0-2Instituto AC Cordoba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1494 · Instituto AC Cordoba 1553

	Union Santa Fe	Draw	Instituto AC Cordoba
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	37%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Instituto AC Cordoba (rating 1494 vs 1553).
H2H favours Union Santa Fe: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe	Instituto AC Cordoba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +5’	2.55	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 2–2–1 Instituto AC Cordoba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Instituto AC Cordoba	1-2 HT 0-1	Union Santa Fe
16/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Instituto AC Cordoba	0-4 HT 0-4	Union Santa Fe
14/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Instituto AC Cordoba
19/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Instituto AC Cordoba	1-1 HT 1-1	Union Santa Fe
06/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-2 HT 0-2	Instituto AC Cordoba

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Velez Sarsfield	7	3	4	0	10	6	13
2	Instituto AC Cordoba	6	4	1	1	5	2	13
3	Gimnasia Mendoza	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
4	Defensa y Justicia	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
5	CA Independiente	6	3	1	2	6	3	10
6	Union Santa Fe	7	3	1	3	12	10	10
7	Newell's	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Boca Juniors	7	2	4	1	7	8	10
9	Deportivo Riestra	7	2	2	3	7	6	8
10	Platense	6	2	2	2	7	10	8
11	Lanus	7	2	1	4	7	8	7
12	San Lorenzo	6	2	1	3	2	4	7
13	Central Cordoba	7	2	1	4	4	7	7
14	Estudiantes LP	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
15	CA Talleres de Córdoba	7	1	2	4	8	12	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Santa Fe	Instituto AC Cordoba
Central Cordoba	1-2 L	1-0 W
Lanus	2-1 W	1-0 W
Gimnasia Mendoza	0-2 L	1-0 W
Platense	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Instituto AC Cordoba (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Union Santa Fe

DWLDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	4-1	2	3	W
21/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	8	6	L
07/08	Lanus TEST Fixtures	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
01/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
25/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	8	D

Instituto AC Cordoba

WLDWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
17/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
09/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
03/08	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
30/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
25/07	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
05/05	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/04	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
18/04	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
11/04	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs Instituto AC Cordoba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Santa Fe win (37%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 37%, draw 31%, Instituto AC Cordoba 32%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs Instituto AC Cordoba?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.17 · Instituto AC Cordoba 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Instituto AC Cordoba?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.