Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/09, 22:00
Prediction: River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia
Team pages: River Plate · Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.9Total
River Plate1.31
Independiente Rivadavia0.59
1X2
River Plate
Draw
Independiente Rivadavia
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0 19%
Recent form · 10 last
River Plate
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Independiente Rivadavia
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
River Plate
1–2–2
Independiente Rivadavia
(5 last)
- Independiente Rivadavia1-1River Plate
- Independiente Rivadavia0-0River Plate
- Independiente Rivadavia2-1River Plate
- Independiente Rivadavia4-0River Plate
- River Plate2-0Independiente Rivadavia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · River Plate 1481 · Independiente Rivadavia 1525
| River Plate | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 31% | 15% |
| Market | 55% | 28% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Rivadavia (rating 1481 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Independiente Rivadavia: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| River Plate | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/44/33% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.8 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate 1–2–2 Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | River Plate |
| 25/10/25 Argentina Cup | Independiente Rivadavia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | River Plate |
| 22/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | River Plate |
| 23/03/24 World Club Friendlies | Independiente Rivadavia | 4-0 HT 2-0 | River Plate |
| 07/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Sarmiento | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 4 | Belgrano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Tigre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Rosario Central | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Atlético Tucumán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Huracan | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Barracas Central | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Independiente Rivadavia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Banfield | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 12 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 14 | River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | CA Aldosivi | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 30/07 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 14/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 20/04 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate win (54%). Probabilities: River Plate 54%, draw 30%, Independiente Rivadavia 16%.
How many goals are expected in River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model expects 1.9 goals (River Plate 1.31 · Independiente Rivadavia 0.59), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.