Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 31/08, 00:15

Prediction: CA Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Team pages: CA Independiente · Gimnasia Mendoza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

CA Independiente1.62

Gimnasia Mendoza0.68

1X2

59% 26% 15%

CA Independiente Draw Gimnasia Mendoza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLLWD

Gimnasia Mendoza 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWLWW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente 1–1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza (2 last)

Gimnasia Mendoza1-1CA Independiente
Gimnasia Mendoza1-2CA Independiente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1519 · Gimnasia Mendoza 1531

	CA Independiente	Draw	Gimnasia Mendoza
Our model	59%	27%	14%
Market	59%	26%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente	Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.75

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.58
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +7’	1.57	3.60	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	1.58	3.87	6.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 1–1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia Mendoza	1-1 HT 1-1	CA Independiente
29/06/25 Argentina Cup	Gimnasia Mendoza	1-2 HT 1-0	CA Independiente

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Instituto AC Cordoba	6	4	1	1	5	2	13
2	Gimnasia Mendoza	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
3	Velez Sarsfield	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
4	Defensa y Justicia	6	3	2	1	8	8	11
5	CA Independiente	6	3	1	2	6	3	10
6	Newell's	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
7	Platense	6	2	2	2	7	10	8
8	Deportivo Riestra	6	2	1	3	6	5	7
9	Union Santa Fe	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
10	San Lorenzo	6	2	1	3	2	4	7
11	Estudiantes LP	6	2	0	4	7	7	6
12	Lanus	5	2	0	3	6	6	6
13	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	5	7	6
14	Central Cordoba	5	2	0	3	3	5	6
15	CA Talleres de Córdoba	5	1	0	4	6	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente	Gimnasia Mendoza
Independiente Rivadavia	0-0 D	1-5 L
Lanus	3-1 W	1-0 W
Platense	0-1 L	1-1 D
San Lorenzo	2-1 W	0-1 L
Defensa y Justicia	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente

WLWLWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
17/08	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
09/08	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	13	4	L
04/08	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
31/07	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
26/07	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
10/05	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
02/05	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
24/04	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
19/04	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	2-1	3-1	6	4	W

Gimnasia Mendoza

DWLWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-2	1	3	W
18/08	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
01/08	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
29/07	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
24/07	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
04/05	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
26/04	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-5	2	9	L
21/04	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
12/04	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente win (59%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 59%, draw 26%, Gimnasia Mendoza 15%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

The model expects 2.3 goals (CA Independiente 1.62 · Gimnasia Mendoza 0.68), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.