Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 30/08, 00:00
Prediction: Boca Juniors vs Lanus
Team pages: Boca Juniors · Lanus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.85Total
Boca Juniors1.29
Lanus0.56
1X2
Boca Juniors
Draw
Lanus
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Boca Juniors
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Lanus
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Boca Juniors
1–3–2
Lanus
(6 last)
- Lanus0-3Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors0-0Lanus
- Lanus1-0Boca Juniors
- Lanus2-1Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-1Lanus
- Boca Juniors1-1Lanus
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Boca Juniors 1582 · Lanus 1443
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 32% | 15% |
| Market | 55% | 29% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.85 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1582 vs 1443).
- H2H favours Lanus: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boca Juniors | Lanus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.7 | 2.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors 1–3–2 Lanus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Boca Juniors |
| 11/05/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lanus |
| 03/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Lanus | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 19/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Lanus | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 23/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lanus |
| 11/06/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lanus |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | CA Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Newell's | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Defensa y Justicia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Deportivo Riestra | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Estudiantes LP | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Lanus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Platense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boca Juniors | Lanus |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Central Cordoba | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| CA Independiente | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 27/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 11 | W |
| 12/04 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Lanus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 12/08 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Union Santa Fe TEST Fixtures |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/08 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 21/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 14/04 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors vs Lanus?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors win (54%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors 54%, draw 30%, Lanus 16%.
How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors vs Lanus?
The model expects 1.85 goals (Boca Juniors 1.29 · Lanus 0.56), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Lanus?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.