Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: Rosario Central vs Gimnasia LP

Team pages: Rosario Central · Gimnasia LP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Rosario Central1.37

Gimnasia LP0.79

1X2

49% 30% 21%

Rosario Central Draw Gimnasia LP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Rosario Central 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLDWWW

Gimnasia LP 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWLL

Head-to-head

Rosario Central 5–1 Gimnasia LP (6 last)

Gimnasia LP1-2Rosario Central
Gimnasia LP0-3Rosario Central
Rosario Central2-1Gimnasia LP
Gimnasia LP0-1Rosario Central
Rosario Central2-1Gimnasia LP
Gimnasia LP2-1Rosario Central

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rosario Central 1524 · Gimnasia LP 1516

	Rosario Central	Draw	Gimnasia LP
Our model	49%	30%	20%
Market	50%	29%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rosario Central: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rosario Central	Gimnasia LP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.6	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +11’	1.90	3.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rosario Central 5–0–1 Gimnasia LP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	1-2 HT 1-0	Rosario Central
27/09/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	0-3 HT 0-1	Rosario Central
15/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Rosario Central	2-1 HT 1-1	Gimnasia LP
05/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	0-1 HT 0-0	Rosario Central
18/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Rosario Central	2-1 HT 2-1	Gimnasia LP
23/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	2-1 HT 1-1	Rosario Central

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
2	Belgrano	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
3	Rosario Central	5	3	1	1	5	3	10
4	Sarmiento	5	3	0	2	10	8	9
5	Barracas Central	5	3	0	2	3	3	9
6	Gimnasia LP	5	3	0	2	6	7	9
7	Atlético Tucumán	5	2	2	1	4	2	8
7	CA Tigre	5	2	2	1	4	2	8
9	Huracan	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Independiente Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
11	Banfield	5	2	1	2	4	5	7
12	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	6	1	2	3	2	6	5
13	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
14	River Plate	5	1	0	4	2	4	3
15	Aldosivi	6	0	2	4	4	9	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rosario Central	Gimnasia LP
Barracas Central	1-0 W	2-0 W
Aldosivi	2-1 W	2-1 W
River Plate	1-0 W	1-0 W
Racing Club	0-0 D	1-2 L
Belgrano	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia LP (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rosario Central

WDWDLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
08/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	10	1	W
03/08	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
29/07	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
24/07	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
17/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	9	L
13/05	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
10/05	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
03/05	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
25/04	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Gimnasia LP

WWWLLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
15/08	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-4	2	8	L
09/08	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/07	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/07	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
14/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
11/05	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
03/05	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
26/04	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rosario Central vs Gimnasia LP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rosario Central win (49%). Probabilities: Rosario Central 49%, draw 30%, Gimnasia LP 21%.

How many goals are expected in Rosario Central vs Gimnasia LP?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Rosario Central 1.37 · Gimnasia LP 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Rosario Central vs Gimnasia LP?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.