Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 29/08, 19:45
Prediction: Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield
Team pages: Deportivo Riestra · Velez Sarsfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.69Total
Deportivo Riestra0.8
Velez Sarsfield0.9
1X2
Deportivo Riestra
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Riestra
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Velez Sarsfield
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Riestra
1–3–1
Velez Sarsfield
(5 last)
- Velez Sarsfield0-0Deportivo Riestra
- Deportivo Riestra2-2Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-1Deportivo Riestra
- Deportivo Riestra1-1Velez Sarsfield
- Deportivo Riestra1-2Velez Sarsfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Riestra 1479 · Velez Sarsfield 1549
| Deportivo Riestra | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 37% | 34% |
| Market | 30% | 34% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.69 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Velez Sarsfield (rating 1479 vs 1549).
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Riestra | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 2.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0 | 5.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Riestra 1–3–1 Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Riestra |
| 07/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 29/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Riestra |
| 11/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 15/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Deportivo Riestra | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | CA Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Newell's | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Defensa y Justicia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Deportivo Riestra | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Estudiantes LP | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Lanus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Platense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 15 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Riestra | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Defensa y Justicia | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Boca Juniors | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CA Independiente | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Velez Sarsfield (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Riestra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/07 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
| 05/05 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 27/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 21/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Velez Sarsfield win (35%). Probabilities: Deportivo Riestra 30%, draw 35%, Velez Sarsfield 35%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model expects 1.69 goals (Deportivo Riestra 0.8 · Velez Sarsfield 0.9), with a 55% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.