Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 29/08, 02:15

Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento

Team pages: Union Santa Fe · Sarmiento

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Union Santa Fe1.92

Sarmiento1.19

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Union Santa Fe Draw Sarmiento

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Union Santa Fe 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLWLLW

Sarmiento 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Union Santa Fe 4–2 Sarmiento (6 last)

Sarmiento1-3Union Santa Fe
Sarmiento1-0Union Santa Fe
Sarmiento1-2Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe1-0Sarmiento
Union Santa Fe0-2Sarmiento
Union Santa Fe1-0Sarmiento

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1477 · Sarmiento 1477

	Union Santa Fe	Draw	Sarmiento
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	51%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Santa Fe: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Santa Fe	Sarmiento
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +1’	1.80	3.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 4–0–2 Sarmiento

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	1-3 HT 0-2	Union Santa Fe
30/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	1-0 HT 0-0	Union Santa Fe
02/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	1-2 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe
08/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento
15/05/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-2 HT 0-1	Sarmiento
09/09/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
2	Belgrano	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
3	Rosario Central	5	3	1	1	5	3	10
4	Sarmiento	5	3	0	2	10	8	9
5	Atlético Tucumán	6	2	3	1	4	2	9
6	Barracas Central	5	3	0	2	3	3	9
7	Gimnasia LP	6	3	0	3	8	10	9
8	CA Tigre	5	2	2	1	4	2	8
9	Huracan	6	2	2	2	4	4	8
10	Independiente Rivadavia	6	2	2	2	5	6	8
11	Banfield	6	2	1	3	5	7	7
12	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	6	1	2	3	2	6	5
13	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
14	River Plate	5	1	0	4	2	4	3
15	Aldosivi	6	0	2	4	4	9	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Santa Fe	Sarmiento
Belgrano	0-2 L	0-4 L
Independiente Rivadavia	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Santa Fe (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Union Santa Fe

DDWLDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	8	6	L
07/08	Lanus TEST Fixtures	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
01/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
25/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
27/04	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	4	10	D

Sarmiento

WLLWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	9	7	W
08/08	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/08	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
29/07	Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-3	4	1	L
24/07	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-3	7	9	L
03/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
26/04	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
20/04	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
13/04	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
02/04	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Santa Fe win (52%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 52%, draw 27%, Sarmiento 21%.

How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.92 · Sarmiento 1.19), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.