Football · Colombia Primera B · 01/10, 22:30

Prediction: Envigado FC vs Orsomarso

Team pages: Envigado FC · Orsomarso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.7Total

Envigado FC1.24

Orsomarso0.46

1X2

57% 29% 14%

Envigado FC Draw Orsomarso

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0 22%

Recent form · 10 last

Envigado FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLDDDW

Orsomarso 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWLLLD

Head-to-head

Envigado FC 4–0 Orsomarso (4 last)

Orsomarso0-1Envigado FC
Orsomarso0-1Envigado FC
Orsomarso0-1Envigado FC
Envigado FC1-0Orsomarso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Envigado FC 1493 · Orsomarso 1465

	Envigado FC	Draw	Orsomarso
Our model	55%	32%	13%
Market	58%	26%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 1.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Envigado FC: 4-0-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Envigado FC	Orsomarso
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.5	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +8’	1.57	3.50	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Envigado FC 4–0–0 Orsomarso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	0-1 HT 0-0	Envigado FC
30/05/25 Colombia Cup	Orsomarso	0-1 HT 0-0	Envigado FC
20/03/24 Colombia Cup	Orsomarso	0-1 HT 0-1	Envigado FC
05/03/24 Colombia Cup	Envigado FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Orsomarso

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	10	6	2	2	17	9	20
2	Tigres FC	10	5	3	2	12	4	18
3	Independiente Valle del Cauca	9	5	2	2	10	3	17
4	Patriotas FC	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
5	Real Cartagena	9	4	2	3	16	10	14
6	Boca Juniors De Cali	9	4	2	3	14	11	14
7	Atletico Cali FC	10	4	2	4	12	15	14
8	Real San Andres	10	2	6	2	12	15	12
9	Bogota FC	9	3	2	4	6	9	11
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	9	3	2	4	7	11	11
11	Envigado FC	9	2	4	3	9	8	10
12	Deportes Quindio	9	2	4	3	7	8	10
13	Orsomarso	8	2	3	3	4	6	9
14	Itagui Leones	9	2	3	4	7	15	9
15	Barranquilla FC	10	2	2	6	10	16	8
16	Union Magdalena	8	2	1	5	5	9	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Envigado FC	Orsomarso
Atletico Cali FC	3-0 W	0-2 L
Real Cartagena	0-0 D	0-1 L
Itagui Leones	1-1 D	0-0 D
Union Magdalena	0-1 L	0-0 D
Tigres FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Envigado FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Envigado FC

DWDLLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
22/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
12/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
06/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	11	4	D
01/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
24/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
03/08	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
27/07	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
29/05	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	1	5	D

Orsomarso

LDWDDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
11/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
05/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	12	9	L
25/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
20/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
01/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/07	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
18/04	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/04	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Envigado FC vs Orsomarso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Envigado FC win (57%). Probabilities: Envigado FC 57%, draw 29%, Orsomarso 14%.

How many goals are expected in Envigado FC vs Orsomarso?

The model expects 1.7 goals (Envigado FC 1.24 · Orsomarso 0.46), with a 61% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Envigado FC vs Orsomarso?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.