Football · Colombia Primera B · 08/10, 22:30

Prediction: Atletico Cali FC vs Real Cartagena

Team pages: Atletico Cali FC · Real Cartagena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Atletico Cali FC1.06

Real Cartagena2.03

1X2

18% 24% 59%

Atletico Cali FC Draw Real Cartagena

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Cali FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLLL

Real Cartagena 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLDDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Cali FC 0–6 Real Cartagena (6 last)

Real Cartagena4-1Atletico Cali FC
Real Cartagena4-0Atletico Cali FC
Atletico Cali FC1-2Real Cartagena
Atletico Cali FC0-2Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena3-1Atletico Cali FC
Atletico Cali FC1-3Real Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Cali FC 1487 · Real Cartagena 1495

	Atletico Cali FC	Draw	Real Cartagena
Our model	18%	23%	59%
Market	17%	24%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Cartagena: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Cali FC	Real Cartagena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.2	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.61
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +23’	5.25	3.75	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +22’	5.61	4.07	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Cali FC 0–0–6 Real Cartagena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	4-1 HT 3-0	Atletico Cali FC
06/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	4-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Cali FC
25/04/25 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Real Cartagena
04/04/24 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	0-2 HT 0-2	Real Cartagena
24/08/23 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	3-1 HT 2-1	Atletico Cali FC
09/03/23 Colombia Primera B	Atletico Cali FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Real Cartagena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	11	7	2	2	19	10	23
2	Independiente Valle del Cauca	11	7	2	2	15	6	23
3	Tigres FC	11	6	3	2	13	4	21
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	10	5	2	3	17	13	17
5	Patriotas FC	11	5	2	4	17	17	17
6	Deportes Quindio	11	4	4	3	9	8	16
7	Real Cartagena	11	4	3	4	19	14	15
8	Atletico Cali FC	11	4	2	5	13	17	14
9	Internacional FC de Palmira	11	4	2	5	8	12	14
10	Envigado FC	11	2	6	3	12	11	12
11	Bogota FC	11	3	3	5	9	13	12
12	Real San Andres	11	2	6	3	13	18	12
13	Union Magdalena	10	3	2	5	9	11	11
14	Orsomarso	11	2	4	5	7	11	10
15	Itagui Leones	10	2	3	5	7	16	9
16	Barranquilla FC	10	2	2	6	10	16	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Cali FC	Real Cartagena
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-2 L	1-1 D
Envigado FC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Tigres FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
Orsomarso	2-0 W	1-0 W
Internacional FC de Palmira	1-0 W	1-2 L
Itagui Leones	3-0 W	6-1 W
Bogota FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Cartagena (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Cali FC

DDLWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
27/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
22/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-3	4	4	L
15/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
04/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
29/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
25/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
06/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	4	7	D
03/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	5	D

Real Cartagena

DLWWLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
22/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
13/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
30/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
25/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	4-1	6-1	3	5	W
21/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/08	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Cali FC vs Real Cartagena?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Cartagena win (59%). Probabilities: Atletico Cali FC 18%, draw 24%, Real Cartagena 59%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Cali FC vs Real Cartagena?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Atletico Cali FC 1.06 · Real Cartagena 2.03), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Cali FC vs Real Cartagena?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.