Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 19/08, 12:30

Prediction: Preston Lions vs Melbourne City FC 2

Team pages: Preston Lions · Melbourne City FC 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Preston Lions2.34

Melbourne City FC 20.7

1X2

74% 17% 9%

Preston Lions Draw Melbourne City FC 2

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWWW

Melbourne City FC 2 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Preston Lions 1–0 Melbourne City FC 2 (1 last)

Melbourne City FC 20-3Preston Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions 1611 · Melbourne City FC 2 1449

	Preston Lions	Draw	Melbourne City FC 2
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	75%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1611 vs 1449).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions	Melbourne City FC 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X5.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 17:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.20▼	Pinn 1.24
X	4.00 → 5.75▲	Pinn 6.12 ★
2	5.00 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:42 +7’	1.50	4.00	5.00
03:22 +7’	1.40▼	4.20▲	6.00▲
06:07 +5’	1.48▲	4.10▼	5.00▼
13:56 +2’	1.28▼	5.00▲	7.00▲
15:05 +2’	1.17▼	6.50▲	12.00▲
17:49 +6’	1.20▲	5.75▼	9.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +1’	1.24	6.04	8.08
15:06 +1’	1.25▲	5.98▼	7.62▼
16:21	1.25▼	5.98	7.70▲
17:55	1.24▼	6.12▲	8.03▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions 1–0–0 Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Melbourne City FC 2	0-3 HT 0-2	Preston Lions

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	24	15	6	3	49	21	51
2	Hume City	24	14	4	6	48	32	46
3	Avondale	24	13	2	9	61	34	41
4	South Melbourne	24	13	2	9	38	33	41
5	Preston Lions	23	14	4	5	36	18	37
6	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	24	8	11	5	32	31	35
7	Heidelberg Utd	24	9	7	8	38	33	34
8	Melbourne City FC 2	23	8	6	9	39	30	30
9	Dandenong City	24	9	6	9	32	29	29
10	St Albans Saints	24	7	7	10	28	42	28
11	Altona Magic	24	7	6	11	27	39	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	24	5	6	13	21	47	21
13	Green Gully	24	3	6	15	20	49	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	24	4	3	17	23	54	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions	Melbourne City FC 2
Dandenong Thunder	3-0 W	2-0 W
Heidelberg Utd	3-1 W	2-2 D
South Melbourne	0-0 D	0-3 L
Hume City	2-1 W	0-1 L
Avondale	3-2 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Preston Lions

WWWDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
12/08	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup	3-1	4-1	7	3	W
08/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia Victoria Cup	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
31/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-2	5	0	D
24/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/07	Newcastle Jets Australia Cup	0-2	3-2	6	1	W
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
07/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W

Melbourne City FC 2

WLLWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
01/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
25/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-3	3	5	L
18/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
11/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
04/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
26/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
30/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions vs Melbourne City FC 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions win (74%). Probabilities: Preston Lions 74%, draw 17%, Melbourne City FC 2 9%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions vs Melbourne City FC 2?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Preston Lions 2.34 · Melbourne City FC 2 0.7), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions vs Melbourne City FC 2?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.