Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 10/09, 14:30
Prediction: Sabail FC vs Energetik Mingechevir
Team pages: Energetik Mingechevir
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Sabail FC1.99
Energetik Mingechevir1.06
1X2
Sabail FC
Draw
Energetik Mingechevir
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Sabail FC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Energetik Mingechevir
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sabail FC
4–1
Energetik Mingechevir
(5 last)
- Energetik Mingechevir4-1Sabail FC
- Energetik Mingechevir0-1Sabail FC
- Sabail FC2-0Energetik Mingechevir
- Sabail FC3-0Energetik Mingechevir
- Energetik Mingechevir1-2Sabail FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sabail FC 1561 · Energetik Mingechevir 1521
| Sabail FC | Draw | Energetik Mingechevir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 27% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabail FC (rating 1561 vs 1521).
- H2H favours Sabail FC: 4-0-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sabail FC | Energetik Mingechevir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 2.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sabail FC 4–0–1 Energetik Mingechevir
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Sabail FC |
| 12/03/26 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sabail FC |
| 12/09/25 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Sabail FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Energetik Mingechevir |
| 03/03/17 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Sabail FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Energetik Mingechevir |
| 04/10/16 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Sabail FC |
Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Karvan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Cebrayil FK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | FK Sahdag Qusar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Energetik Mingechevir | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Zaqatala | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Khankendi FK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Sabail FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Simal FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Moik Baku | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Baku Sporting FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sabail FC | Energetik Mingechevir |
|---|---|---|
| FK Sahdag Qusar | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Zaqatala | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Cebrayil FK | 6-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Difai FK | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Simal FK | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Safa Baku | 1-2 L | 5-2 W |
| Baku Sporting FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Moik Baku | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sabail FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sabail FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Khankendi FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/04 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
3-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 09/04 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/04 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/03 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 9 | D |
Energetik Mingechevir
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 15/05 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/05 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 13 | 9 | L |
| 29/04 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
2-0 | 7-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/04 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/04 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 5-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/03 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sabail FC vs Energetik Mingechevir?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sabail FC win (57%). Probabilities: Sabail FC 57%, draw 25%, Energetik Mingechevir 18%.
How many goals are expected in Sabail FC vs Energetik Mingechevir?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Sabail FC 1.99 · Energetik Mingechevir 1.06), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sabail FC vs Energetik Mingechevir?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.