Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 04/09, 15:00
Prediction: Energetik Mingechevir vs Zaqatala
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Energetik Mingechevir2.33
Zaqatala1.02
1X2
Energetik Mingechevir
Draw
Zaqatala
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Energetik Mingechevir
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Zaqatala
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Energetik Mingechevir
3–2–1
Zaqatala
(6 last)
- Energetik Mingechevir7-1Zaqatala
- Energetik Mingechevir0-0Zaqatala
- Zaqatala2-3Energetik Mingechevir
- Energetik Mingechevir2-2Zaqatala
- Zaqatala2-1Energetik Mingechevir
- Energetik Mingechevir1-0Zaqatala
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Energetik Mingechevir 1540 · Zaqatala 1436
| Energetik Mingechevir | Draw | Zaqatala | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Energetik Mingechevir (rating 1540 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Energetik Mingechevir: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Energetik Mingechevir | Zaqatala | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.3 | 1.7 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Energetik Mingechevir 3–2–1 Zaqatala
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/26 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 7-1 HT 2-0 | Zaqatala |
| 13/02/26 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Zaqatala |
| 23/10/25 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Zaqatala | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Energetik Mingechevir |
| 03/04/25 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Zaqatala |
| 31/01/25 Azerbaijan Division 1 | Zaqatala | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Energetik Mingechevir |
| 30/10/24 Azerbaijan Cup | Energetik Mingechevir | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Zaqatala |
Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baku Sporting FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cebrayil FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Energetik Mingechevir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Karvan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Khankendi FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Moik Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sabail FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FK Sahdag Qusar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Simal FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zaqatala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Energetik Mingechevir | Zaqatala |
|---|---|---|
| Sabail FC | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Moik Baku | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FK Sahdag Qusar | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Cebrayil FK | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Difai FK | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Simal FK | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Safa Baku | 5-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Baku Sporting FC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Energetik Mingechevir (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Energetik Mingechevir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 15/05 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
3-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/05 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 13 | 9 | L |
| 29/04 | Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1 |
2-0 | 7-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/04 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/04 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-0 | 5-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/03 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 12/03 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
Zaqatala
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 15/05 | Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 06/05 | Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-7 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/04 | FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/04 | Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/04 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/04 | Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/03 | Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 13/03 | Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Energetik Mingechevir vs Zaqatala?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Energetik Mingechevir win (66%). Probabilities: Energetik Mingechevir 66%, draw 20%, Zaqatala 14%.
How many goals are expected in Energetik Mingechevir vs Zaqatala?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Energetik Mingechevir 2.33 · Zaqatala 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Energetik Mingechevir vs Zaqatala?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.