Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 11/09, 14:30

Prediction: Moik Baku vs Simal FK

Team pages: Moik Baku · Simal FK

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Moik Baku1.88
Simal FK0.84
1X2
62% 23% 16%
Moik Baku Draw Simal FK
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Moik Baku 3-2-5 (W-D-L)
DWLWLLDLWL
Simal FK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
DLLLWDDLWL
Head-to-head
Moik Baku 2–2–0 Simal FK (4 last)
  • Simal FK1-1Moik Baku
  • Moik Baku2-0Simal FK
  • Simal FK1-1Moik Baku
  • Moik Baku3-1Simal FK
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moik Baku 1483 · Simal FK 1458
Moik BakuDrawSimal FK
Our model61%24%15%
Market62%21%16%
Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Moik Baku: 2-2-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Moik BakuSimal FK
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.60.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.90.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/30/40%20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.1 / 52.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.6 / 03.6 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Moik Baku 220 Simal FK

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DateHomeScoreAway
06/05/26
Azerbaijan Division 1
Simal FK1-1
HT 1-0
Moik Baku
10/12/25
Azerbaijan Division 1
Moik Baku2-0
HT 1-0
Simal FK
19/09/25
Azerbaijan Division 1
Simal FK1-1
HT 1-0
Moik Baku
29/10/24
Azerbaijan Cup
Moik Baku3-1
HT 1-0
Simal FK

Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 FK Karvan 1100 303
2 Cebrayil FK 1100 213
3 FK Sahdag Qusar 1100 103
4 Energetik Mingechevir 1010 221
4 Zaqatala 1010 221
6 Khankendi FK 1010 111
6 Sabail FC 1010 111
8 Simal FK 1001 120
9 Moik Baku 1001 010
10 Baku Sporting FC 1001 030

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMoik BakuSimal FK
FK Sahdag Qusar 0-1 L 0-1 L
Difai FK 4-0 W 0-1 L
Energetik Mingechevir 1-3 L 0-3 L
Safa Baku 0-3 L 0-0 D
Zaqatala 2-1 W 0-0 D
Baku Sporting FC 1-3 L 1-0 W
Cebrayil FK 2-1 W 1-2 L
Sabail FC 2-2 D 0-4 L
Record vs common 3 W 1 D 4 L 1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Moik Baku (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moik Baku

DWLWLLDLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
03/09 FK Sahdag Qusar
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-1 0-1 64 L
21/05 Difai FK
Azerbaijan Division 1
2-0 4-0 84 W
15/05 Energetik Mingechevir
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-3 1-3 L
06/05 Simal FK
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-1 1-1 D
29/04 FK Sahdag Qusar
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-0 0-1 55 L
22/04 Safa Baku
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-0 0-3 L
15/04 Zaqatala
Azerbaijan Division 1
2-1 2-1 76 W
08/04 Baku Sporting FC
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-2 1-3 13 L
02/04 Cebrayil FK
Azerbaijan Division 1
1-1 2-1 71 W
18/03 Sabail FC
Azerbaijan Division 1
1-0 2-2 19 D

Simal FK

DLLLWDDLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
04/09 Cebrayil FK
Azerbaijan Division 1
1-1 1-2 55 L
21/05 Cebrayil FK
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-1 3-2 100 W
14/05 Difai FK
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-0 0-1 42 L
06/05 Moik Baku
Azerbaijan Division 1
1-0 1-1 D
29/04 Safa Baku
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-0 0-0 05 D
23/04 Baku Sporting FC
Azerbaijan Division 1
1-0 1-0 32 W
16/04 Sabail FC
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-1 0-4 57 L
09/04 Energetik Mingechevir
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-0 0-3 13 L
03/04 FK Sahdag Qusar
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-1 0-1 105 L
19/03 Zaqatala
Azerbaijan Division 1
0-0 0-0 33 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moik Baku vs Simal FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moik Baku win (62%). Probabilities: Moik Baku 62%, draw 23%, Simal FK 16%.

How many goals are expected in Moik Baku vs Simal FK?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Moik Baku 1.88 · Simal FK 0.84), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Moik Baku vs Simal FK?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.