Football · Azerbaijan Division 1 · 17/09, 14:30

Prediction: Simal FK vs FK Sahdag Qusar

Team pages: Simal FK · FK Sahdag Qusar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Simal FK0.71

FK Sahdag Qusar1.4

1X2

19% 27% 54%

Simal FK Draw FK Sahdag Qusar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Simal FK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLWLD

FK Sahdag Qusar 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Simal FK 0–1–3 FK Sahdag Qusar (4 last)

FK Sahdag Qusar1-0Simal FK
Simal FK0-1FK Sahdag Qusar
FK Sahdag Qusar4-2Simal FK
Simal FK0-0FK Sahdag Qusar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Simal FK 1452 · FK Sahdag Qusar 1605

	Simal FK	Draw	FK Sahdag Qusar
Our model	18%	30%	52%
Market	21%	24%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Sahdag Qusar (rating 1452 vs 1605).
H2H favours FK Sahdag Qusar: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Simal FK	FK Sahdag Qusar
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	0.9 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.75

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 1 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	1.61 → 1.73▲	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
22:32 +12’	4.33	3.75	1.61
16:40 +18’	3.80▼	3.60▼	1.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Simal FK 0–1–3 FK Sahdag Qusar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	FK Sahdag Qusar	1-0 HT 1-0	Simal FK
19/02/26 Azerbaijan Division 1	Simal FK	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Sahdag Qusar
06/11/25 Azerbaijan Division 1	FK Sahdag Qusar	4-2 HT 1-1	Simal FK
29/10/25 Azerbaijan Cup	Simal FK	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Sahdag Qusar

Standings · Azerbaijan Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Sahdag Qusar	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
2	Cebrayil FK	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Zaqatala	2	1	1	0	5	2	4
4	Sabail FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	FK Karvan	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Energetik Mingechevir	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
7	Khankendi FK	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
7	Simal FK	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
9	Moik Baku	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
10	Baku Sporting FC	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Simal FK	FK Sahdag Qusar
Moik Baku	1-1 D	1-0 W
Cebrayil FK	1-2 L	0-0 D
Difai FK	0-1 L	3-0 W
Baku Sporting FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sabail FC	0-4 L	0-0 D
Energetik Mingechevir	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sahdag Qusar (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Simal FK

LLLWDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/09	Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
21/05	Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	3-2	10	0	W
14/05	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
06/05	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/04	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
23/04	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/04	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-4	5	7	L
09/04	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
03/04	FK Sahdag Qusar Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	0-1	10	5	L

FK Sahdag Qusar

WWDWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Division 1	2-0	2-0	0	2	W
03/09	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
22/05	Baku Sporting FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
15/05	Sabail FC Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
05/05	Energetik Mingechevir Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
29/04	Moik Baku Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/04	Zaqatala Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/04	Cebrayil FK Azerbaijan Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
09/04	Difai FK Azerbaijan Division 1	3-0	3-0	2	4	W
03/04	Simal FK Azerbaijan Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Simal FK vs FK Sahdag Qusar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Sahdag Qusar win (54%). Probabilities: Simal FK 19%, draw 27%, FK Sahdag Qusar 54%.

How many goals are expected in Simal FK vs FK Sahdag Qusar?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Simal FK 0.71 · FK Sahdag Qusar 1.4), with a 61% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Simal FK vs FK Sahdag Qusar?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.