Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 07/11, 14:30

Prediction: Bari U19 vs Monopoli U19

Team pages: Bari U19 · Monopoli U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Bari U191.51

Monopoli U191.19

1X2

44% 26% 29%

Bari U19 Draw Monopoli U19

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bari U19 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDDLW

Monopoli U19 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWLDWDWD

Head-to-head

Bari U19 4–2 Monopoli U19 (6 last)

Bari U192-1Monopoli U19
Monopoli U191-3Bari U19
Bari U191-0Monopoli U19
Monopoli U191-0Bari U19
Monopoli U191-0Bari U19
Bari U191-0Monopoli U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bari U19 1562 · Monopoli U19 1499

	Bari U19	Draw	Monopoli U19
Our model	44%	28%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bari U19 (rating 1562 vs 1499).
H2H favours Bari U19: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bari U19	Monopoli U19
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	1.1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +15’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bari U19 4–0–2 Monopoli U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	2-1 HT 1-1	Monopoli U19
01/11/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Monopoli U19	1-3	Bari U19
25/01/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Monopoli U19
15/09/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Monopoli U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Bari U19
06/04/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Monopoli U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Bari U19
02/12/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Monopoli U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Catanzaro U19	7	6	1	0	19	6	19
2	Benevento U19	7	5	1	1	20	7	16
3	Perugia U19	7	5	0	2	18	4	15
4	Palermo U19	7	4	3	0	13	8	15
5	Monopoli U19	7	3	3	1	12	7	12
6	Bari U19	7	3	3	1	11	6	12
7	Avellino U19	7	4	0	3	12	11	12
8	Latina U19	7	3	2	2	15	11	11
9	Pescara U19	7	3	2	2	15	14	11
10	Napoli U19	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
11	Spezia U19	7	2	1	4	11	14	7
12	Pisa U19	7	2	0	5	11	14	6
13	Cosenza U19	7	1	1	5	7	18	4
14	Frosinone U19	7	1	1	5	5	20	4
15	Ascoli U19	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
16	Salernitana U19	7	0	1	6	5	24	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bari U19	Monopoli U19
Pescara U19	0-1 L	2-2 D
Napoli U19	1-1 D	0-0 D
Ascoli U19	2-1 W	2-0 W
Benevento U19	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Monopoli U19 (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bari U19

WWLWWDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
24/10	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	12	4	L
17/10	Napoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
10/10	Latina U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
19/09	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
05/09	Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
09/05	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
02/05	Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/04	Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	4-0	6	1	W

Monopoli U19

DLDWLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Napoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/10	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/10	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
10/10	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
19/09	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	0-3	–	–	L
05/09	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	4-0	–	–	W
09/05	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
02/05	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/04	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bari U19 vs Monopoli U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bari U19 win (44%). Probabilities: Bari U19 44%, draw 26%, Monopoli U19 29%.

How many goals are expected in Bari U19 vs Monopoli U19?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Bari U19 1.51 · Monopoli U19 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bari U19 vs Monopoli U19?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.