Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 19/09, 11:00

Prediction: Palermo U19 vs Bari U19

Team pages: Palermo U19 · Bari U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Palermo U191.51

Bari U191.41

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Palermo U19 Draw Bari U19

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Palermo U19 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDLLWW

Bari U19 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWWLWW

Head-to-head

Palermo U19 2–2–2 Bari U19 (6 last)

Bari U192-1Palermo U19
Palermo U190-4Bari U19
Palermo U190-0Bari U19
Bari U191-6Palermo U19
Bari U191-1Palermo U19
Palermo U194-0Bari U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palermo U19 1514 · Bari U19 1559

	Palermo U19	Draw	Bari U19
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bari U19 (rating 1514 vs 1559).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palermo U19	Bari U19
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	3.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:33 +2’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Palermo U19 2–2–2 Bari U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	2-1 HT 1-0	Palermo U19
20/09/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Palermo U19	0-4 HT 0-0	Bari U19
03/05/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Palermo U19	0-0 HT 0-0	Bari U19
21/12/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	1-6 HT 1-1	Palermo U19
03/02/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Bari U19	1-1 HT 1-1	Palermo U19
04/11/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Palermo U19	4-0 HT 2-0	Bari U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bari U19	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Perugia U19	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Palermo U19	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
4	Avellino U19	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Catanzaro U19	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
6	Benevento U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Latina U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Monopoli U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	Pisa U19	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
10	Pescara U19	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Spezia U19	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Ascoli U19	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Napoli U19	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
14	Frosinone U19	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
15	Cosenza U19	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
16	Salernitana U19	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palermo U19	Bari U19
Avellino U19	1-3 L	1-1 D
Catanzaro U19	1-1 D	1-3 L
Crotone U19	7-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Palermo U19 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palermo U19

LLWDWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/09	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	3-1	6	0	W
09/05	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/05	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
25/04	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	3-1	7-1	1	0	W
11/04	Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
02/04	Ternana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
21/03	Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
14/03	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	2	0	L

Bari U19

LWLDDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
05/09	Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
09/05	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
02/05	Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/04	Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	4-0	6	1	W
18/04	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-2	2-2	14	6	D
04/04	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-3	10	5	L
21/03	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-1	5	1	W
14/03	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palermo U19 vs Bari U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Palermo U19 win (39%). Probabilities: Palermo U19 39%, draw 27%, Bari U19 34%.

How many goals are expected in Palermo U19 vs Bari U19?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Palermo U19 1.51 · Bari U19 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Palermo U19 vs Bari U19?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.