Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19

Team pages: Pisa U19 · Spezia U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Pisa U191.82

Spezia U191.37

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Pisa U19 Draw Spezia U19

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pisa U19 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWDLW

Spezia U19 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Pisa U19 4–2 Spezia U19 (6 last)

Pisa U192-1Spezia U19
Spezia U191-2Pisa U19
Pisa U191-2Spezia U19
Spezia U190-2Pisa U19
Spezia U193-0Pisa U19
Pisa U192-0Spezia U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pisa U19 1519 · Spezia U19 1470

	Pisa U19	Draw	Spezia U19
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pisa U19 (rating 1519 vs 1470).
H2H favours Pisa U19: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pisa U19	Spezia U19
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +44’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pisa U19 4–0–2 Spezia U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Pisa U19	2-1 HT 1-0	Spezia U19
13/09/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Spezia U19	1-2 HT 1-2	Pisa U19
03/05/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Pisa U19	1-2 HT 0-0	Spezia U19
07/12/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Spezia U19	0-2 HT 0-0	Pisa U19
30/03/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Spezia U19	3-0 HT 2-0	Pisa U19
16/12/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Pisa U19	2-0 HT 0-0	Spezia U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bari U19	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Perugia U19	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Palermo U19	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
4	Avellino U19	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Catanzaro U19	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
6	Benevento U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Latina U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Monopoli U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	Pisa U19	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
10	Pescara U19	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Spezia U19	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Ascoli U19	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Napoli U19	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
14	Frosinone U19	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
15	Cosenza U19	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
16	Salernitana U19	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pisa U19	Spezia U19
Perugia U19	2-3 L	1-3 L
Empoli U19	1-3 L	0-4 L
Benevento U19	0-1 L	0-1 L
Ascoli U19	3-2 W	1-1 D
Ternana U19	3-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pisa U19 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pisa U19

LWWLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Frosinone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	3-2	3	2	W
04/09	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	2-3	2	5	L
16/05	Lecco U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
09/05	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
02/05	Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-3	9	1	L
25/04	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/04	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
11/04	Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
02/04	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	3-1	3-2	3	2	W
21/03	Ternana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-4	3-4	2	5	L

Spezia U19

WWDLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	2-3	7	7	L
05/09	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
09/05	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
02/05	Ternana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
25/04	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
18/04	Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-2	0-4	3	0	L
11/04	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
04/04	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
21/03	Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
14/03	Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pisa U19 win (47%). Probabilities: Pisa U19 47%, draw 25%, Spezia U19 28%.

How many goals are expected in Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Pisa U19 1.82 · Spezia U19 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pisa U19 vs Spezia U19?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.