Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 12/09, 15:00
Prediction: Bari U19 vs Ascoli U19
Team pages: Bari U19 · Ascoli U19
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.52Total
Bari U191.91
Ascoli U191.6
1X2
Bari U19
Draw
Ascoli U19
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Bari U19
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Ascoli U19
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bari U19
2–1–3
Ascoli U19
(6 last)
- Ascoli U192-1Bari U19
- Bari U191-3Ascoli U19
- Ascoli U193-0Bari U19
- Bari U191-1Ascoli U19
- Ascoli U192-3Bari U19
- Bari U194-3Ascoli U19
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bari U19 1536 · Ascoli U19 1461
| Bari U19 | Draw | Ascoli U19 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bari U19 (rating 1536 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Ascoli U19: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bari U19 | Ascoli U19 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/22/22% | 44/22/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.3 | 1.9 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bari U19 2–1–3 Ascoli U19
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Ascoli U19 | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bari U19 |
| 25/10/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Bari U19 | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Ascoli U19 |
| 15/02/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Ascoli U19 | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bari U19 |
| 05/10/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Bari U19 | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ascoli U19 |
| 28/04/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Ascoli U19 | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Bari U19 |
| 23/09/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 | Bari U19 | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Ascoli U19 |
Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monopoli U19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Bari U19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Benevento U19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Avellino U19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Catanzaro U19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Perugia U19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Ascoli U19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Spezia U19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Palermo U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Napoli U19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Latina U19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Salernitana U19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bari U19 | Ascoli U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Avellino U19 | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Catanzaro U19 | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Palermo U19 | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Monopoli U19 | 2-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bari U19 (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bari U19
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Crotone U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 21/03 | Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/03 | Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/03 | Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Ascoli U19
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Catanzaro U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 02/04 | Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/03 | Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bari U19 vs Ascoli U19?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bari U19 win (44%). Probabilities: Bari U19 44%, draw 24%, Ascoli U19 31%.
How many goals are expected in Bari U19 vs Ascoli U19?
The model expects 3.52 goals (Bari U19 1.91 · Ascoli U19 1.6), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bari U19 vs Ascoli U19?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.