Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Salernitana U19 vs Perugia U19

Team pages: Salernitana U19 · Perugia U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Salernitana U190.85

Perugia U192.21

1X2

13% 19% 68%

Salernitana U19 Draw Perugia U19

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Salernitana U19 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLWLL

Perugia U19 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Salernitana U19 0–2–4 Perugia U19 (6 last)

Perugia U193-1Salernitana U19
Salernitana U190-1Perugia U19
Perugia U193-2Salernitana U19
Salernitana U192-2Perugia U19
Salernitana U192-2Perugia U19
Perugia U193-0Salernitana U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salernitana U19 1404 · Perugia U19 1557

	Salernitana U19	Draw	Perugia U19
Our model	12%	20%	67%
Market	14%	17%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Perugia U19 (rating 1404 vs 1557).
H2H favours Perugia U19: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salernitana U19	Perugia U19
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.6	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/44/56%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	4.1 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.50

X5.25

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:45 +11’	6.50	5.25	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salernitana U19 0–2–4 Perugia U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Perugia U19	3-1 HT 0-0	Salernitana U19
13/12/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Salernitana U19	0-1 HT 0-1	Perugia U19
28/04/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Perugia U19	3-2 HT 2-1	Salernitana U19
02/11/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Salernitana U19	2-2 HT 1-1	Perugia U19
27/04/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Salernitana U19	2-2 HT 1-2	Perugia U19
04/11/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Perugia U19	3-0 HT 1-0	Salernitana U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bari U19	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Perugia U19	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Palermo U19	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
4	Avellino U19	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Catanzaro U19	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
6	Benevento U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Latina U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Monopoli U19	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	Pisa U19	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
10	Pescara U19	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Spezia U19	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Ascoli U19	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Napoli U19	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
14	Frosinone U19	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
15	Cosenza U19	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
16	Salernitana U19	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salernitana U19

DLLLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Latina U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-3	1-4	6	3	L
05/09	Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
09/05	Avellino U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
02/05	Bari U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/04	Cosenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
18/04	Perugia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-3	4	0	L
11/04	Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
04/04	Benevento U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-3	6	4	L
21/03	Pescara U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
14/03	Ternana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	2-2	4	5	D

Perugia U19

LWWLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Monopoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
04/09	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
23/05	Modena U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-2	10	6	L
16/05	Reggiana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
09/05	Palermo U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
02/05	Ascoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/04	Pisa U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
18/04	Salernitana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	3-1	4	0	W
11/04	Spezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-1	3-1	6	6	W
04/04	Empoli U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salernitana U19 vs Perugia U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Perugia U19 win (68%). Probabilities: Salernitana U19 13%, draw 19%, Perugia U19 68%.

How many goals are expected in Salernitana U19 vs Perugia U19?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Salernitana U19 0.85 · Perugia U19 2.21), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Salernitana U19 vs Perugia U19?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.