Football · Spain La Liga · 27/08, 20:30

Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

Team pages: Celta Vigo · Osasuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Celta Vigo1.52

Osasuna1.05

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Celta Vigo Draw Osasuna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Celta Vigo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLDWD

Osasuna 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Celta Vigo 3–3 Osasuna (6 last)

Celta Vigo1-2Osasuna
Osasuna2-3Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-0Osasuna
Osasuna3-2Celta Vigo
Osasuna0-3Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo0-2Osasuna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celta Vigo 1536 · Osasuna 1477

	Celta Vigo	Draw	Osasuna
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celta Vigo (rating 1536 vs 1477).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celta Vigo	Osasuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.6	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.04
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.46 ★
2	3.60 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:01 +50’	2.00	3.25	3.60
17:16 +3’	2.00	3.30▲	3.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:31 +6’	2.07	3.50	3.56
22:14 +4’	2.04▼	3.46▼	3.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Celta Vigo 3–0–3 Osasuna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-2 HT 0-1	Osasuna
26/10/25 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	2-3 HT 2-1	Celta Vigo
21/02/25 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-0 HT 0-0	Osasuna
01/09/24 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	3-2 HT 2-1	Celta Vigo
04/02/24 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	0-3 HT 0-2	Celta Vigo
13/08/23 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	0-2 HT 0-1	Osasuna

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	CD Alaves	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
3	Espanyol	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	Atletico Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Racing Santander	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Elche	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Deportivo A Coruna	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Athletic Bilbao	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	Malaga	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
19	Levante	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Osasuna
Sevilla	1-0 W	2-1 W
Athletic Bilbao	1-1 D	0-1 L
Levante	2-3 L	2-3 L
Atletico Madrid	1-0 W	1-2 L
Barcelona	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Celta Vigo (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celta Vigo

WLLLWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
12/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
09/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
03/05	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/04	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
22/04	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Oviedo Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
05/04	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	0	4	W

Osasuna

WDDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
12/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
08/05	Levante Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
02/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/04	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/04	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
05/04	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-1	2-2	1	7	D
21/03	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celta Vigo win (47%). Probabilities: Celta Vigo 47%, draw 28%, Osasuna 25%.

How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Celta Vigo 1.52 · Osasuna 1.05), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.