Football · Spain La Liga · 05/09, 16:15

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Athletic Bilbao1.58

Atletico Madrid1.65

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Athletic Bilbao Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLLL

Atletico Madrid 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLWDW

Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao 2–4 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Atletico Madrid3-2Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid3-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao3-0Atletico Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao 1515 · Atletico Madrid 1546

	Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	35%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.4	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.78
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.58 ★
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +14’	2.70	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:52	2.51	3.53	2.64
08:52 +1’	2.53▲	3.57▲	2.67▲
09:48 +1’	2.78▲	3.58▲	2.43▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao 2–0–4 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	3-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao
06/12/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
01/03/25 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
31/08/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
27/04/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	3-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao
29/02/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Athletic Bilbao	3-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Madrid	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
2	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
4	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Real Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
7	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
8	Racing Santander	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
10	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
11	Getafe	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
12	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
13	Deportivo A Coruna	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Celta Vigo	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Valencia	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Malaga	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
20	Athletic Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao	Atletico Madrid
Sevilla	1-3 L	3-1 W
Celta Vigo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Valencia	0-1 L	2-0 W
Osasuna	1-0 W	2-1 W
Villarreal	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao

LWLWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
02/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	4-2	7	6	W
25/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-0	2-3	4	0	L
21/04	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
12/04	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	15	5	L

Atletico Madrid

LWWLWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
02/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
25/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	3	0	W
22/04	Elche Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (38%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao 35%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 38%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Athletic Bilbao 1.58 · Atletico Madrid 1.65), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.