Football · Spain La Liga · 06/09, 18:30

Prediction: CD Alaves vs Osasuna

Team pages: CD Alaves · Osasuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

CD Alaves1.32

Osasuna1.05

1X2

42% 30% 28%

CD Alaves Draw Osasuna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Alaves 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLWDW

Osasuna 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

CD Alaves 1–3–2 Osasuna (6 last)

CD Alaves2-2Osasuna
Osasuna3-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-1Osasuna
Osasuna2-2CD Alaves
Osasuna1-2CD Alaves
Osasuna1-0CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Alaves 1544 · Osasuna 1496

	CD Alaves	Draw	Osasuna
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Alaves (rating 1544 vs 1496).
H2H favours Osasuna: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Alaves	Osasuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.10

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.29
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.52 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +6’	2.25	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:55 +1’	2.26	3.02	3.48
08:51 +6’	2.28▲	3.05▲	3.52▲
15:25 +1’	2.29▲	3.04▼	3.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Alaves 1–3–2 Osasuna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	2-2 HT 1-1	Osasuna
20/12/25 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	3-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
24/05/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 0-0	Osasuna
08/12/24 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	2-2 HT 0-1	CD Alaves
10/08/24 Elite Club Friendlies	Osasuna	1-2 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
04/03/24 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Madrid	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
2	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
4	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Real Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
7	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
8	Racing Santander	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
10	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
11	Getafe	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
12	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
13	Deportivo A Coruna	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Celta Vigo	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Valencia	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Malaga	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
20	Athletic Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Alaves	Osasuna
Getafe	3-0 W	0-1 L
Barcelona	1-0 W	1-2 L
Athletic Bilbao	2-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Alaves

LWLDWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/05	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
02/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-4	4	6	L
25/04	Mallorca Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
21/04	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	6	2	L

Osasuna

DLWLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
24/08	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
23/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
12/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	8	11	L
08/05	Levante Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
02/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/04	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/04	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Alaves vs Osasuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Alaves win (42%). Probabilities: CD Alaves 42%, draw 30%, Osasuna 28%.

How many goals are expected in CD Alaves vs Osasuna?

The model expects 2.37 goals (CD Alaves 1.32 · Osasuna 1.05), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Alaves vs Osasuna?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.