Football · Spain La Liga · 03/09, 21:00

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Team pages: Real Sociedad · Celta Vigo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Real Sociedad1.42

Celta Vigo1.15

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Real Sociedad Draw Celta Vigo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLDLLW

Celta Vigo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDWDL

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad 3–1–2 Celta Vigo (6 last)

Real Sociedad3-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-1Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad0-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo2-0Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo1-2Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo0-1Real Sociedad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad 1467 · Celta Vigo 1510

	Real Sociedad	Draw	Celta Vigo
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celta Vigo (rating 1467 vs 1510).
H2H favours Real Sociedad: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad	Celta Vigo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

23.20

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.94

Under 2.51.89

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.46
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.43 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:33 +2’	2.25	3.25	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:42	2.32	3.35	3.03
08:38 +4’	2.34▲	3.39▲	3.06▲
09:40	2.17▼	3.48▲	3.32▲
10:48 +2’	2.13▼	3.46▼	3.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad 3–1–2 Celta Vigo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	3-1 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo
19/10/25 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-1 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad
13/05/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	0-1 HT 0-1	Celta Vigo
21/12/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-0 HT 2-0	Real Sociedad
23/01/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Celta Vigo	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad
20/01/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Madrid	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
2	CD Alaves	3	2	1	0	5	1	7
3	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
4	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
5	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
6	Real Betis	3	2	0	1	4	5	6
7	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Levante	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
8	Racing Santander	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
10	Espanyol	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
11	Getafe	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
12	Real Sociedad	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
13	Deportivo A Coruna	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Villarreal	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
15	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Celta Vigo	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Valencia	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Malaga	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	Elche	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
20	Athletic Bilbao	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Celta Vigo
Valencia	3-4 L	0-0 D
Sevilla	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Celta Vigo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad

LDLDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
21/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-2	3-4	3	5	L
14/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
09/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
04/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
26/04	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	3-3	4	8	D
22/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L

Celta Vigo

LLLWWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
12/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
09/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
03/05	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/04	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
22/04	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
12/04	Oviedo Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad win (42%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad 42%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Real Sociedad 1.42 · Celta Vigo 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.