Football · Spain La Liga · 31/08, 21:30

Prediction: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

Team pages: Barcelona · Rayo Vallecano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Barcelona2.37

Rayo Vallecano0.63

1X2

76% 17% 8%

Barcelona Draw Rayo Vallecano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWL

Rayo Vallecano 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDWWLD

Head-to-head

Barcelona 4–2–0 Rayo Vallecano (6 last)

Barcelona1-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-1Barcelona
Barcelona1-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-2Barcelona
Barcelona3-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-1Barcelona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona 1626 · Rayo Vallecano 1497

	Barcelona	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Our model	76%	17%	7%
Market	76%	16%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1626 vs 1497).
H2H favours Barcelona: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona	Rayo Vallecano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	5.50 → 5.75▲	Pinn 6.97 ★
2	10.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +2’	1.27	5.50	10.00
18:59 +4’	1.22▼	5.75▲	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:57 +5’	1.20	6.65	10.98
20:28 +4’	1.21▲	6.81▲	11.42▲
21:49 +1’	1.22▲	6.97▲	11.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona 4–2–0 Rayo Vallecano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	1-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
31/08/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-1 HT 0-1	Barcelona
17/02/25 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	1-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
27/08/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-2 HT 1-0	Barcelona
19/05/24 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	3-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
25/11/23 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-1 HT 1-0	Barcelona

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	CD Alaves	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
3	Espanyol	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	Atletico Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Racing Santander	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Elche	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Deportivo A Coruna	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Athletic Bilbao	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	Malaga	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
19	Levante	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona	Rayo Vallecano
Valencia	1-3 L	1-1 D
CD Alaves	0-1 L	1-1 D
Getafe	2-0 W	2-0 W
Espanyol	4-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Rayo Vallecano (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	1-3	8	4	L
17/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	6	1	W
13/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
10/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
02/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/04	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/04	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	4-1	7	9	W
04/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	9	9	W
22/03	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	7	W

Rayo Vallecano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
11/05	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
03/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
26/04	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	3-3	6	8	D
23/04	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
12/04	Mallorca Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona win (76%). Probabilities: Barcelona 76%, draw 17%, Rayo Vallecano 8%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model expects 3 goals (Barcelona 2.37 · Rayo Vallecano 0.63), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.