Football · New Zealand Northern League · 19/08, 09:30
Prediction: Fencibles United vs Auckland United FC
Team pages: Fencibles United · Auckland United FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Fencibles United1.34
Auckland United FC1.81
1X2
Fencibles United
Draw
Auckland United FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fencibles United
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Auckland United FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fencibles United
0–1–2
Auckland United FC
(3 last)
- Auckland United FC1-1Fencibles United
- Auckland United FC3-2Fencibles United
- Fencibles United1-3Auckland United FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fencibles United 1559 · Auckland United FC 1520
| Fencibles United | Draw | Auckland United FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 22% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Auckland United FC: 2-1-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fencibles United | Auckland United FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 2.4 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fencibles United 0–1–2 Auckland United FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Fencibles United |
| 12/07/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland United FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Fencibles United |
| 05/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | Fencibles United | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Auckland United FC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 11 | 56 |
| 2 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland City | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Auckland United FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 16 | 35 |
| 5 | Fencibles United | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 34 | 34 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 27 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 37 | 21 |
| 9 | Melville United | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 47 | 17 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 51 | 15 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 22 | 46 | 12 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 70 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fencibles United | Auckland United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Nelson Suburbs | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Auckland City | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Auckland FC II | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Melville United | 3-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fencibles United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | South Auckland Rangers AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Auckland United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Cambridge FC New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 8 | D |
| 27/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fencibles United vs Auckland United FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland United FC win (48%). Probabilities: Fencibles United 28%, draw 24%, Auckland United FC 48%.
How many goals are expected in Fencibles United vs Auckland United FC?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Fencibles United 1.34 · Auckland United FC 1.81), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fencibles United vs Auckland United FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.